Hey there, Last Night In Basketballers — I am, as I do every year, re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2026-27 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts previewing each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL) (Podcast)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA) (Podcast)
- Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the San Antonio Spurs, who finished last season as the runners-up.
Victor Wembanyama, to the next step
I wrote after Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals that Wembanyama has become the best player in the NBA. I still think that's the case going into this season, despite some of the mistakes that happened during the NBA Finals and some of the very small warts in his game that were revealed along the way.
Wembanyama is an obvious shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year, and might very well already be the best defender I've ever seen. So long as he's healthy, nobody else in the league is going to touch his impact on that end of the floor. It might not even be possible for anyone to approach it. That much is already known, and it's probably not going to change for the foreseeable future.
Where I think the real improvement comes this season is on offense. I expect Wembanyama to return this season with a new package of self-creation moves, in particular. He's been assisted on a smaller share of his two-point baskets with each passing season so far in his career (72.8% —> 70.3% —> 64.7%), and I expect that number to continue on a downward trend as he hones his skill set.
But he hasn't yet been spectacularly efficient when creating for himself. He checked in only 36th in points per direct isolation last year among the 52 players that isolated 250 times or more, per GeniusIQ tracking. He was also 23rd out of 27 players with 100 post-ups or more. And he was 181st out of 221 players who ran 150 or more pick and rolls as the ball-handler. Those numbers should be much higher given his size and skill level.
What we need to see is for Wembanyama to find his spot on the floor. The one place where you just can't stop him from getting what he wants. His version of Tim Duncan on the left block or Dirk Nowitzki at the nail.
There are so many options for where that spot could be because he's so big and so skilled, but I think it might be the nail for him, just like it was for Dirk. They're similar in that they're both supersized shooters, and like it did for Dirk, placing Wemby in the middle of the floor would allow him to cleanly rise up while also giving him an opportunity to survey the defense for help and make an easy pass to either side of the court.
Aside: Dirk was never assisted on as high a share of his baskets early in his career as Wembanyama has been (he didn't top 70% until he was 38 years old), but he also saw his share dive significantly downward once he hit his prime, with only 43.8% of his twos being assisted during his age-27 season. He had a four-year span where that number was under 50%. I think Wemby can get into a similar range, although perhaps he doesn't have to because of his size and the fact that he has so many high-level playmakers on his team that can create even easier looks for him. He capitalizes on those looks with ease, and doing so creates a baseline of efficiency that is hard for other players to replicate.
The hope is that Wembanyama comes back this season stronger and with a firmer base, so that he can get to the spots he wants to with far greater ease than he has in the past. That's something that tends to happen as players age into their bodies, but Wembanyama is obviously different because of his unique body type and high (compared to other players) center of gravity. He's rarely going to be able to get lower than his defender when fighting for position. But if he can't be pushed off the block as freely, that'll just make getting his shot an easier proposition.