Hey there, Last Night In Basketballers — I am, as I do every year, re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2026-27 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts previewing each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL) (Podcast)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA) (Podcast)
- Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the Miami Heat, who finally landed their next big fish this offseason.
The Giannis trade, a big swing
Here's an excerpt of what I wrote about the trade:
And then there's the actual player they landed, who is one of the five best guys in the league, having made First Team All-NBA every single season between 2019 and 2025. He also finished top-10 in Defensive Player of the Year voting in each of those seasons, having won the award in 2020 and made All-Defense in the first four of those seven campaigns. I think people have forgotten just how good Giannis is, because he missed most of last season with his various injuries.
First and foremost, Giannis the best rim pressure guy in the league, and last year he was having the best two-point shooting season of his career thanks to the fact that he took 61% (!!!) of his shots within three feet of the rim. He gets downhill as well and as quickly as anyone in the history of basketball. He doesn't shoot threes anymore and his mid-range conversion rate fluctuates between terrible (like last season) and great (like the year before) but mostly resides in the "acceptably below-average" range, but that's all fine because of what he does at the basket.
The Heat have struggled to generate shots around the rim in recent seasons; that shouldn't be an issue so long as Giannis is healthy — even if they don't have terrific spacing. Giannis can drive through or around anyone in the league, and he's generated paint touches at an elite rate no matter with whom he's been surrounded during his career. I'm fully confident that he'll do the same in Miami.
He's also obviously a very good passer for his position, and he is nearly an automatic trip to the free-throw line every time he touches the ball. (He's had a free-throw rate above .500 every year since 2019 and nearly hit .600 last year after topping that mark in both 2022 and 2023.) Those aren't quite free points because his foul-shooting has regressed since he peaked in the 76-77% range just before becoming a true MVP candidate, but even a guy hitting at a 65% rate like he did last year is generating more efficient scoring than a standard offensive possession.
He's not quite an offense unto himself, but he's pretty close. When you are a walking paint touch, you can pass on the move, and you can create free throws at the rate Giannis does, you are more than likely going to be the centerpiece of a good offense. Since Giannis became an All-Star in 2017, the Bucks ranked 13th, ninth, fourth, eighth, sixth, third, 12th, sixth, and 11th in offensive rating before last season, when he played only 36 games and Milwaukee plummeted to 24th. That's a top-eight offense, on average, with top-five upside during his MVP-level years. We've seen no evidence of a drop-off in skill level in recent seasons, so he should be able to anchor a top-10 offense if he can stay on the court.