Hey there, Last Night In Basketballers — I am, as I do every year, re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2026-27 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts previewing each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL) (Podcast)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA) (Podcast)
- Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the Milwaukee Bucks, who are entering a new era after trading Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The trade, returns
Here are a few excerpts of what I wrote after the trade.
On the cap relief:
Let's start the with cap relief. The Bucks were set to pay Giannis and Portis a combined $73 million in 2026-27, and the two had player options worth a combined $78.4 million for the 2027-28 campaign, though Giannis was likely to decline his so they would be left with the $15.6 million option for Portis and whatever Giannis would have taken on a new deal, had he been interested in returning to the fold.
Herro and Jaquez are heading into the final year of their respective deals, though they are both extension eligible. The two of them, along with Ware and Jakucionis, will cost around $47.5 million this season, meaning the Bucks saved around $25.5 million this year alone. We'll see what happens with Herro and Jaquez, but Ware and Jakucionis combine to make around $11.2 million next year, so there are undoubtedly some savings there as well.
In other words, the Bucks did quite well on the cap relief front in the immediate term, but we'll have to wait to see how they do in the long term. If they extend Herro and/or Jaquez, that eats into their savings. If they move one or both of them in later trades, that would obviously affect the savings in some way as well.
On the draft assets:
The 2030 pick swap is not likely to be particularly valuable given the respective situations in which the Bucks and Heat are going to find themselves over the next few years, but stranger things have certainly happened than two teams' fortunes reversing themselves within a four-year span. Especially when one of the two teams goes all in and somewhat limits its ability to add talent to the roster down the line.
I do like the idea of betting against the Heat by getting first-round picks deep into the future. The 2031 and 2033 Heat might not even have Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster. Even if he's still there, he will be 36 and 38 years old, respectively, for those seasons, and will presumably not be nearly as effective as he is now. When you add in the obviously-significant injury risk (which likely will only increase with time), it seems like a pretty decent bet that those could be good assets, no matter how much you believe in Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg and Erik Spoelstra and Heat Culture.
The big unknown on those draft picks is under what type of draft system they'll be conveyed. The new lottery odds sunset after the 2029 season, when there is an opt-out in the collective bargaining agreement. We could be operating under an entirely different set of rules by the time these picks come available to the Bucks. What if we're using The Wheel and one of those draft slots comes in 30th? What if it comes in first? What if we're using the draft credits system that has been talked about and the Bucks have to bid on picks? It's really hard to value draft assets when you don't know what the draft itself will actually look like.
If the current system stays in place beyond 2029, I think this is still a pretty good bet. The 3-2-1 odds are more favorable to teams like the Heat that always try to stay relevant and never tank. Maybe they'd behave differently if they knew that they were operating in a system where it's somehow more beneficial to tank if you're definitely losing your pick, but we haven't seen them behave that way yet.
On some of the players:
I've always liked Ware's skill set, though it's somewhat concerning to me that he's bounced in and out of both the starting lineup and Spoelstra's dog house during his two NBA seasons. Despite being a really interesting prospect in whom the Heat had a lot invested, he played just 22 minutes a night in both of his seasons as the Heat seemingly couldn't decide whether or not he could play alongside Adebayo, or if they even wanted him to. Still, a guy who can average 18 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 39.5% from three on 233 attempts is a potentially very valuable player. I don't know that I believe in the shooting that much, but even if he can hit in the 36-37% range, that's really good.
Ware also has incredible mobility defensively and can cover a lot of space. He's pretty good in switches and can handle himself in most other coverages. His rim protection does leave something to be desired, despite pretty strong block numbers. Opponents converted 65% of their shots when he was within five feet of both the shooter and the rim last season, per NBA Advanced Stats, which ranked 42nd out of 52 players who challenged at least 4 such shots per game. If he has to play next to another big man in order to adequately protect the basket, he's a less valuable archetype of player.
Jakucionis is much more of an unknown. He played just 945 minutes as a rookie. He did have a stretch where he looked good for a few weeks surrounding the All-Star break, and he made 42.3% of his threes on the season, with treys accounting for an incredible 65.5% of his attempts.
But he did not get to the rim at all and he was terrible in floater range, resulting in his making only 43.9% of his twos. That's not a death sentence; plenty of rookies struggle from two-point range. But it shows that he has a long way to go, especially if the three-point shooting doesn't hold up. His free-throw percentage is encouraging on that front, but he did shoot just 31.8% from deep in college, albeit with good free-throw shooting there, as well.