2025 NBA Free Agency: Live Analysis

Here’s how I’m once again handling free agency this year. I’ll use this space to provide quick thoughts on most (if not necessarily all) of the signings that get reported this week, as they come. This post will be free and unlocked for all to read.

Next week or the week after, I’ll take deeper looks at some of the more impactful moves with one-off analysis and/or opinion posts and/or videos. That's the way I handled things last year and the year before, and the same way I use to do things at FiveThirtyEight in the past.

Before we get started, keep in mind that I am offering a 25% discount on the first year of all paid subscriptions between now and then end of free agency. I'm an independent grinding on my own, and that's not easy, so I'd really appreciate your support if you enjoy reading my work.

Update: July 2, 6:27 p.m.

Deandre Ayton: 2 years, $16.6M (Lakers)

This was immediately the rumor as soon as Ayton was bought out by the Blazers, and here it somewhat-unsurprisingly is. The initial reporting of the signing was hilarious, with the detail that Ayton will make $34 million total this season instead of the value of this actual contract with L.A., the cherrypicked stats, and the idea that because they were the Nos. 1 and 3 picks in the same draft, Ayton and Luka Doncic are now building blocks for the Lakers' future.

If Ayton was all that, he wouldn't have gotten bought out weeks before his 27th birthday. He wouldn't be signing a two-year deal for a portion of the mid-level exception. He did, at least, get a player option, according to Jake Fischer, so if he plays well then he can hit the open market and try to get paid next offseason. If he doesn't, then he'll opt in and collect another $8.5 million next year. But there is nothing about this that signals that he is a building block of any kind.

Nonetheless, he is obviously a clear talent upgrade for the Lakers. This is a team that was starting Jaxson Hayes at center in real live NBA playoff games. That is totally untenable, and it proved to be so as the Lakers were summarily eliminated by the Timberwolves. The Lakers were very clearly not going to do better than this given what was available on the center market this offseason for a team in their salary position. Ayton at his best can hit 15-to-18-foot jump shots, punish switches in the post, make plays as a short-roll guy, and yes, protect the immediate area around the rim and even switch in space.

Of course, we know it's not that simple. Ayton fancies himself a No. 1 offensive option and wants to touch the ball and take shots. Too often, he takes those shots whether they are available or not. Too often, he shies away from using his size and strength and takes fadeaways instead of trucking smaller defenders. Too often, he doesn't get back on defense. Too often, he doesn't set solid screens. Too often, he is just not as locked in as he needs to be to the details of winning basketball.

It is going to be somewhere between fascinating and hilarious to watch him play for J.J. Redick, who is obsessed with those details and makes no secret of it when he's less than thrilled with how a player is executing them. (Defense specifically is going to be an adventure to say the least.) His head looked like it was going to fly off its axis at about 25 different points last season. And we know that LeBron James (assuming he's still around, which is apparently a question that's still floating out there in the ether) won't put up with the Ayton shenanigans either. But maybe — maybe — LeBron and/or Luka can bring the best out of him, like Chris Paul did for 2-3 years. That seems to be the hope here. And maybe it really does work out that way.

But you can probably put me in the camp of people who think this will not go very well. I think the most likely scenario here is that he has good counting stats but they're mostly empty calories and he's a neutral or negative presence. The second-most likely is that he totally flames out. And the least likely is that he rediscovers his peak form and gets majorly paid next offseason. But I've been wrong before.

Tre Mann: 3 years, $24M (Hornets)

Spencer Dinwiddie: 1 year, Minimum? (Hornets)

Mann is one of the most aesthetically pleasing players in the NBA. Not necessarily his game. His actual on-court look. He's basically trying to channel Allen Iverson out there. So, that's fun. He started showing something once he got to Charlotte after either hardly playing or not being very effective through his first 2.5 seasons in Oklahoma City, but his season got cut short after just 13 games last year. The Hornets can use all the talent they can get and their books don't really start to matter until they reach a certain baseline of competence so I like bringing him back for a few years to see what's really there, and in the worst case that he fizzles out, it's always handy to have $8-ish million salaries available to make trades.

I suppose Dinwiddie is around to provide some veteran leadership? The frontcourt-backcourt balance on this roster is extremely funny. Their forwards and centers are Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Tidjane Salaun, Josh Okogie, Liam McNeeley, Moussa Diabate, and Mason Plumlee. Okay!

Dante Exum: 1 year, Minimum? (Mavericks)

This deal would take Dallas over the second apron and so a cost-saving move has to be coming between now and July 6. I've really liked what Exum has brought to the table as a Swiss army knife rotation guy since he returned to the NBA, but he hasn't really shown that he can stay on the court.

Larry Nance Jr.: 1 year, Minimum? (Cavaliers)

I've always kind of liked Nance. He has long had trouble staying healthy but when he's out there he can be a backup at multiple frontcourt positions and play alongside multiple different kinds of big men. He can finish around the basket, he's a good passer for his position, he can occasionally knock down a jumper, and he's at least a solid defender with upside for more when he's on his game. He should fit fairly well with what Kenny Atkinson wants to do offensively and afford the Cavs a bit of lineup flexibility. For what is presumably very little cost, that's pretty nice.

Update: July 1, 6:40 p.m.

Jakob Poeltl: 4 years, $104M Extension (Raptors)

Sandro Mamukelashvili: 2 years, $5.5M (Raptors)

The Raptors refused to include Poeltl in any Kevin Durant trade discussions, and here's why. They just love Poeltl and seemingly always have.

He's a solid starting center who can (usually) protect the rim, pass a little bit (his assist rates have ticked up over the last several seasons, but his turnover rate remains sky high), finish well inside (over 72% from inside 3 feet in seven of his nine NBA seasons), hit the glass on both ends of the floor (he's had a double-digit offensive rebound rate every year and an over 20% defensive rebound rate in five of nine seasons, including each of the last four), and muck shit up defensively (he's always had good block and steal rates). He's also shown nice pick-and-roll chemistry with Immanuel Quickley when Quickley has actually been healthy. The Raps also need someone to insulate the paint, and their center play whenever Poeltl has been injured or just off the floor has been a disaster since he returned to the team from San Antonio, so it seems like it's important to keep him around. I'm just generally not in love with paying "solid starting center" types on long-term deals like this. The floor for center play is pretty high these days, and unless you're locking in a high-impact player, I'd probably rather stick to short-term contracts and/or try to hit on bigger bargains than this one.

Mamukelashvili is an interesting flier in that vein. He's clearly talented, and has been uber-productive whenever given the opportunity to play extended minutes. (See his 34-point game last year, which came with only 19:27 of playing time, and he also collected 9 rebounds and 3 assists that night.) He just hasn't ever consistently been a sizable part of a rotation. I'm a sucker for a big, bruising lefty who can both truck guys and shoot from the outside, so at such a low cost, I'm very much into taking this kind of swing.

Duncan Robinson: 3 years, $48M (Pistons)

This is a sign-and-trade for Robinson, with Simone Fontecchio heading back to Miami. The Pistons were clearly on the hunt for a shooter after the news of Malik Beasley's possible suspension and/or banishment for this gambling investigation, with previous reports indicating they were pursuing a possible trade for Malik M0nk with Dennis Schroder heading to Sacramento. After the Kings cleared enough cap room to avoid that scenario, Detroit apparently pivoted to Robinson.

I love Monk more than just about anybody in the world loves a player, but Robinson is probably a better fit here given his size and the fact that he doesn't ever need the ball in his hands. I'm assuming he starts now that Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. are both out the door, thought we'll see what the Pistons decide to do with Jaden Ivey back in the mix. $16 million sounds about right for a player of Robinson's archetype and he fills a needed role here, but three years is a bit rich for me. Sign-and-trade contracts, though, have to be for at least three years, so this was probably the only way the Pistons could get him. (Update: The second year is partially guaranteed and the third year is non-guaranteed. Nice work.)

Josh Minott: 2 years, $5.5M (Celtics)

Minott basically never got a chance to play in Minnesota, appearing in just 93 games and totaling 463 minutes in three seasons — getting double-digit minutes in a game 0nly 12 times and more than 20 minutes just twice. He was highly productive on a per-minute basis (16.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 36), but the sample is so small that it's rendered almost meaningless. The Celtics are clearly taking a flier here, but if you're taking a flier, it's probably best to do it on someone who has been productive when on the floor.

Tim Hardaway Jr.: 1 year, minimum (Nuggets)

THJ clearly isn't going to have as big a role on the Nuggets as he did for the Pistons (he started every game in which he appeared for the first time in his career and averaged 28 minutes per night), but he's going to a better team and will slide into a role for which he's more suited at this stage of his career. He's settled in as a 37%-ish shooter from deep over the last six seasons after shooting 34% through his first six, and he's exactly the kind of player who benefits from playing with Nikola Jokic and comes away with a career-best shooting season. The Nuggets won't need him to do much other than get up shots and hold up on defense, and if he's not doing the former on any given night, at least they now conceivably have enough guys that they don't have to play him that evening.

Update: July 1, 12:53 p.m.

Myles Turner: 4 years, $107M (Bucks)

Gary Trent Jr.: 2 years, $7.5M (Bucks)

Holy shit. As Yossi Gozlan notes, Milwaukee dipped under the cap to make this signing and thus has access to the room exception, which it can use to sign Trent and Kevin Porter Jr. before retaining Taurean Prince on his minimum deal.

And want another holy shit? The Bucks are apparently waiving and stretching Damian Lillard's contract to make that all happen. He'll still collect his $113 million over the next two years (and it gives him the money that he actually might have opted out of next summer, according to Marc Spears, plus he can now go and sign wherever he wants after he was traded to a team that he didn't want to go to in the first place), but his cap hit will drop to around $22.5 million on Milwaukee's books for the next five seasons.

That is an absolute ton of dead money for a very long time, but I suppose they think the calculation is worth it to keep themselves in contention for the length of Giannis Antetokounmpo's contract. Lillard probably wasn't going to be able to contribute this year and wouldn't be himself in 2026-27 due to the combination of his age and his Achilles tear, but this is still absolutely wild stuff.

Say this about the Bucks, they go down swinging every single time there are rumors about Giannis potentially wanting out. They traded for Jrue Holiday, they traded for Lillard, and now they're swinging for Turner. They show him they're serious every single time there's even a question about it. Giannis is apparently not thrilled about this, according to Chris Haynes, but it's always worth questioning who benefits from reporting like this (Dame) and taking it with a grain of salt. Especially when Shams reported that Giannis was excited about playing with Turner.

Okay, now we get to the on-court fit for Turner. Obviously, he makes for a good fit with Giannis in the same way that Brook Lopez did. He's amazingly still only 29 years old, so he shouldn't yet be subject to the same age-related decline we saw from Lopez last year. He's a good shooter (and coming off a career-best 39.6% from deep) who can protect the rim, which is extremely rare, even in the modern NBA. He didn't have the best playoffs or Finals as a shooter or scorer,; but his defense mostly held up quite well (especially on Chet Holmgren). His rebounding still leaves something to be desired (which gives him something in common with Kyle Kuzma), but that can be offset in some way by Giannis.

Does this actually keep the Bucks in contention in the East? I'm somewhat skeptical, but with multiple contenders taking significant steps backward, it should at least keep them in the mix for a top-six spot, which was looking very questionable not too long ago. Long term... it could be a significant problem. Especially if Giannis eventually asks out. That $22.5 million dead-money charge for five years is a lot to handle on a yearly basis.

For the Pacers, man, what a sliding doors moment that Tyrese Haliburton Achilles tear is. If he makes it through Game 7 of the Finals unscathed, it's hard to see them letting Turner walk like this. But they were apparently reluctant to pay the luxury tax with Haliburton out all year and now they'll have to find a way to pivot at center. (Also, really? You can't pay the tax for a year while you wait for your guy to get back? You just went to the damn Finals.) Maybe, years after signing him to an offer sheet, they come back around to Deandre Ayton now that you likely won't have to pay him very much? He doesn't exactly fit with the Haliburton version of the team, but Haliburton also won't be on the floor this season.

Guerschon Yabusele: 2 years, $12M (Knicks)

I like this for the Knicks. It's the taxpayer mid-level exception, which means they're hard-capped at the second apron, but they have enough room to fill out the roster with minimum guys. Yabusele can shoot (38% from deep in his return to the NBA last year), so he can play next to either Karl-Anthony Towns or Mitchell Robinson (whom I assume will now be starting next to each other, though we'll see what happens if and when they actually hire coach). He can be the lone big against certain opposing lineups, though probably only if he plays with OG Anunoby because you'll need some help protecting the rim. But the Knicks needed better floor spacing and another rotation big man, and they got it in one player.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 4 years, $285M Ext. (Thunder)

You give the reigning MVP and Finals MVP whatever he wants.

Dennis Schroder: 3 years, $45M (Kings)

Sacramento traded Jonas Valanciunas for Dario Saric before agreeing to this deal with Schroder, which allowed the Kings to avoid having to send Malik Monk to Detroit to make the Schroder deal happen. They still don't really have a point guard who creates for others and I'm not sure there are enough basketballs for Schroder, Monk, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis to all be on the same team, but hey, Schroder is pretty good.

Update: June 30, 10:03 p.m.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 4 years, $62M (Hawks)

Luke Kennard: 1 year, $11M (Hawks)

The Atlanta Hawks, folks! What an offseason for these guys. The Kristaps Porzingis deal. The heist with the Pelicans on draft night. And now a sign-and-trade for NAW into either the Dejounte Murray trade exception or their mid-level exception, plus another affordable deal to bring in Kennard. (Kennard is also potentially a walking trade exception type with that $11 million salary.) These guys are going to be damn good next season. Forget the play-in (finally). They should be well within range for a top-six spot in the East, and you just know they're going to be absolutely everybody's trendy pick to make the conference finals, given all the injuries to various contenders.

This is a team that should be better on both sides of the floor. They've added shooting (KP and Kennard are snipers and NAW has been over 38% from deep in each of the last three seasons) and they've added defense on both the perimeter (NAW) and the interior (KP). NAW and Kennard can also each play some backup point guard and create a little bit off the dribble, even if that's an adventure for both of them. They have Jalen Johnson coming back. They have Trae Young in about as good a situation as he's had in his career to date. They're versatile. They have the ability to play big or small, and they have different units that can juice their offense or defense. Good basketball team.

Tyus Jones: 1 year, $7M (Magic)

Jones had somewhat a tough go of things last year, like just about everyone in Phoenix. But he still shot over 40% from three and, as usual, took care of the ball. The Magic needed another point guard, and Jones is a good fit as a backup who can slide into the starting lineup if and when Jalen Suggs misses time. He can also potentially play with Suggs when Desmond Bane is on the bench because Suggs has good size.

Kevin Porter Jr.: 2 years, $10.5M (Bucks)

Tauren Prince: 2 years, $7.1M (Bucks)

Porter, like D'Angelo Russell below, is simply not my kind of player. But the Bucks are in desperate need of anyone who can create a shot off the dribble with Damian Lillard likely out for the year, and so you get Porter coming back on this contract. He's going to be wild and he's going to shoot a ton and he's going to kill you on defense but you probably just need him and so here he is.

Prince shot the lights out (44% from deep) last season and emerged as a starter for almost the entire year. He can still defend a little bit but not as well as he used to, and if he's not knocking down his threes then he has very little value at this point — as we saw in the playoff series against the Pacers, when he was played off the floor and totaled just 4 minutes in Milwaukee's final game of the year. But the Bucks need to show Giannis Antetokounmpo that they're not taking significant steps backward despite losing Brook Lopez, and so Prince returns, I guess. It's all a bit uninspiring.

Caris LeVert: 2 years, $29M (Pistons)

This is a ripple effect of the Malik Beasley situation. Detroit was reportedly negotiating to bring Beasley back but that potentially can't happen with his being investigated for gambling. LeVert is a much different kind of player — not nearly the same level of shooter, for one thing. But with the Pistons also losing Dennis Schroder (who is supposedly set to sign with the Kings for a deal that interestingly hasn't been fully reported yet), they are trying to thread the needle by getting one guy to replace two. At this salary, he's also eminently moveable if it doesn't work out as planned.

Trendon Watford: 2 years, $5.3M (76ers)

I've always been at least mildly intrigued by Watford. He has really high assist rates for a pseudo-big man (albeit with nearly as high turnover rates), he finishes well at the rim, and he's hit 35% of his career threes. He's never really been a super consistent part of a rotation and this isn't the kind of deal that makes me think he will be one in Philly, but maybe there's something here. I like this.

Jordan Clarkson: 1 year, minimum (Knicks)

Clarkson got bought out by the Jazz and is headed to New York when he clears waivers in a couple days. He's a perfectly acceptable signing for the minimum as a guy who can create shots when Jalen Brunson is on the bench. He can't really do anything else, but luckily the Knicks won't be asking him to. He's the kind of guy you can ride if he's on a heater and rather easily bench when he's not, especially because New York has other options behind Brunson in Deuce McBride and potentially Tyler Kolek.

For more on free agency, check out the latest episode of Double Dribble. And please subscribe and leave us a 5-star review!

Update: June 30, 9:12 p.m.

Brook Lopez: 2 years, $18M (Clippers)

L.A. used part of the mid-level exception to do this, which hard-caps the Clippers at the first apron. It's notable, as my podcast co-host Mo Dakhil pointed out, that this is yet another contract that expires in 2027, when the Clippers seem to be gearing up for... something. We'll have to see. But only Ivica Zubac and some of their rookie-scale guys are under contract beyond that. So there will be a lot of flexibility two years from now. Lopez took a step backward last year in Milwaukee, but he can still protect the rim and shoot threes. The Clips should have 48 minutes of good rim protection now with Lopez behind Zubac, and Lopez gives them a much different look in pick-and-roll action with James Harden due to his ability to stretch the floor.

Kevon Looney: 2 years, $16M (Pelicans)

I continue to have no clue what the Pelicans are doing.

Luke Kornet: 4 years, $41M (Spurs)

I love this for both Kornet and the Spurs. Kornet has basically not been paid at all in his career, and here he gets a significant deal to play for a team that's just a great fit for him. We've seen during his time in Boston that he can work as the lone big man or playing alongside a stretch big, which he did with Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford at times. Victor Wembanyama is that on steroids. We know that Wemby is mostly better at center, but having this change-up to throw at teams is valuable. We also know that Kornet doesn't seem to mind if he plays a significant role one night and not much of a role the next, which is always good for a team that is going to be giving most of its center minutes to a foundational superstar.

Clint Capela: 3 years, $21.5M (Rockets)

I continue to love what Houston is doing this offseason. Just absolutely loading up at every level. The Rockets now have three centers you can feel pretty good about to varying degrees with Capela behind Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. They can play big in a bunch of different ways. They also have a ton of depth on the wing and they are going to be dynamite defensively. They don't currently have room to make this signing with their exceptions so there probably has to be a sign-and-trade coming to bring in either Capela or Dorian Finney-Smith. Sending out Jock Landale on his non-guaranteed $8M deal would make some sense.

Luka Garza: 2 years, $4.5M (Celtics)

After trading Kristaps Porzingis and losing Luke Kornet and seemingly being on the verge of losing Al Horford, the Celtics had to do something at center, and this is at least an interesting flier. Garza can rebound and he puts up an absolute ton of threes on a per-minute basis, which makes sense given my theory that Joe Mazzulla is going to have his team ratchet up the three-point rate even more next season than it did a year ago in order to drive up variance without Jayson Tatum.

Update: June 30, 8:39 p.m.

Jake LaRavia: 2 years, $12M (Lakers)

The Lakers gave LaRavia a deal that comes in just over the taxpayer mid-level exception, which means that they used part of the non-taxpayer mid-level and are thus hard-capped at the first apron. According to Bobby Marks, they're about $14 million below that line and, as mentioned below (but earlier chronologically), they still need a center and probably need more defense on the wing. LaRavia can shoot (37% from three for his career and 42% last year) and make some plays defensively with his activity level but L.A. still needs a whole lot more.

D'Angelo Russell: 2 years, $13M (Mavericks)

Dallas needing an innings-eater at point guard with Kyrie Irving likely out for most of the year. Technically, Russell can be that guy. He can create shots. They might not be good shots and he might not make them, but he can create them. But he doesn't drive efficient offense and he is an extremely negative defender and I've heard somewhere that defense wins championships. I'm probably never going to be the guy who says "hey that's a great job getting D'Angelo Russell" because he's just not my kind of player, but for what Dallas needed, I guess this is a fine bet.

Ty Jerome: 3 years, $28M (Grizzlies)

The Grizz continue their makeover after the Desmond Bane trade and their various other salary-saving moves. They now have two solid backup point guards in Jerome and Scottie Pippen Jr., either of whom can theoretically play with Ja Morant or in place of him when he inevitably misses time. Jerome had by far the best season of his career last year as a playmaker and especially floater-maker, and if he can recreate some of that magic in Tuomas Iisalo's apparently pick-and-roll heavy offense, then this can be a nice signing.

Bruce Brown: 1 year (?), Minimum

HELL YES. It's all about The U, baby. With this signing coming mere minutes after the Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and a distant first-round pick for Cam Johnson, the Nuggets had a very productive early evening and I love it for them. (And I'll have more to say about the Porter-Johnson deal later, probably next week.) We don't have to speculate on what Brown brings to the table for Denver because we already know: he can function as essentially the backup point guard, especially if he plays with Nikola Jokic when Jamal Murray is out, and he can close games in place of any of the non-Jokic-and-Murray starters if any of those guys doesn't have it going. I'm so happy about this reunion.

Update: June 30, 6:37 p.m.

Jaren Jackson Jr.: 5 years, $240M Extension (Grizzlies)

Santi Aldama: 3 years, $52.5M (Grizzlies)

Cam Spencer: 2 years, $4.5M (Grizzlies)

This is the expected renegotiation and extension for Jackson, with the Grizzlies using cap space to bump up his salary for the 2025-26 season and then extending him off that new number. He also gets a player option on the final year of the deal, which if he opts out would allow him to hit free agency with 11 years of experience at 29 years old, which is pretty incredible.

Jackson is coming off a borderline All-NBA season that was probably the best offensive year of his career, and he remains a fantastic defender. (Some of it being a borderline All-NBA season was about the sheer volume of players who were ineligible due to the games played minimum, but he was also really good.) The Grizz are clearly going to build this next version of their team around him and Ja Morant, which was easy to see coming after the Desmond Bane trade. I never bought into the idea that they were going to go full-on rebuild or even entertain Jackson trades, which just did not make much sense.

Aldama was First Team All-Dubin this past year. Memphis doing this deal was telegraphed by the Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia trades at the deadline, which cleared enough cap space for the Grizz to do the Jackson extension and then pay Aldama. The Grizzlies still have the room exception available after these two signings, but may or may not actually use it.

In any event, Aldama also showed great growth as an offensive player, specifically in the self-creation department, though he also shot a career-best 37% from deep. He's got the type of position flexibility that the Grizzlies have long prioritized, and he's clearly capable of either starting or coming off the bench. This is a nice value deal for a player I like a lot — especially if the Grizzlies structure it with either declining or flat salaries, which they can do given the amount of space they have under the tax and the aprons.

Spencer comes back on the non-Bird exception. He only played 251 minutes last year and was mostly unremarkable, though he did have 23 points and 7 assists in his one late-season start. Maybe there's something there. The Grizz do have a track record of printing back-end rotation guys on an assembly line.

Dorian Finney-Smith: 4 years, $53M (Rockets)

Here's the first player to actually change teams, as DFS gets the full mid-level exception to leave the Lakers for the Rockets. He's a very valuable wing defender who should at least somewhat offset the loss of Dillon Brooks in the Kevin Durant trade. They are, however, different types of defenders, with DFS not really being able to defend guards in the same way that Brooks can. He's a less volatile offensive player, though, and he doesn't use nearly as many possessions as Brooks, who can get out over his skis on that side of the ball.

Still, Houston has a ton of depth and defense, especially on the wing, and with KD and DFS should have even more lineup flexibility than last year. The Rockets should remain among the top tier of teams behind the Thunder in the West, and look like perhaps the primary threat to OKC's throne.

This is also a significant loss for the Lakers, who still need at least one center and now also need to back-fill with wing defense because they desperately need to cover for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves on that end of the floor.

Paul Reed: 2 years, $11M (Pistons)

B-ball Paul! He's a perfectly fine third center. At least in the regular season.

Update: June 30, 2:01 p.m.

Day'Ron Sharpe: 2 years, $12M (Nets)

I like this! Sharpe is a useful role player: solid finisher, elite offensive rebounder. If the Nets ever get someone capable of running pick and rolls as the primary ball-handler, he could be a nice screen-and-dive asset. I thought he could have gotten a deal similar to this from a good team, but we'll never find out.

Joe Ingles: 1 year, minimum (Timberwolves)

Good vibes guy here. It's like the wing version of the Nuggets continuing to keep DeAndre Jordan around, except that the Wolves have no illusions about actually trying to play Ingles, who appeared in just 19 games last year. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the deal is the amount of luxury-tax dollars it will cost the Wolves, which is considerably more than it would have been if they had signed a player with less experience to a minimum deal.

Nic Batum: 2 years, $11.5M (Clippers)

Batum remains a high-quality role player, as we saw throughout the season and during the playoffs. He can't really handle huge minutes anymore due to his age, but his combination of size, shooting, and defense makes him a really valuable player. At this price (it's the non-Bird exception), and with a team option on the second season of the deal, the Clippers did really well. And they still have access to the full mid-level.

Update: June 30, 10:50 a.m.

Jabari Smith Jr.: 5 years, $122M Extension (Rockets)

This feels to me like a spiritually similar contract to the one the Rockets gave Jalen Green last offseason (i.e. he hasn't necessarily been worth this much with his play to date but we're betting that he will be; and even if he's not, we can still use that salary in a trade later), but I like the bet a lot more for the Rockets for several reasons.

First, it's a lot cheaper. Green got $32 million per year and Smith is getting $24.4 million per year. That's beneficial for both the Rockets and any team that trades for him. Second, there is more team control. Green signed a three-year deal with a player option for the third season. I explained last year why that structure had almost no chance of being beneficial for Houston. (See the link above.) Smith is locked in for five years, giving the Rockets chance of having him at a discount for several seasons if he lives up to his potential. And again, the same applies to any team that potentially trades for him.

Most importantly, there's just not as much improvement that needs to happen for Smith to become the archetype of player that the Rockets are betting he'll be, compared with how much room Green needed to grow to do the same. That's true in the sense of salary, role, and skill. Just over $24 million per year is, at this point, basically fifth starter money. And the Rockets don't need Smith to turn into a primary offensive option here. They just need him to hit shots, beat closeouts, and play really good defense. He's far more equipped to fill that role, given his skill set, than Green was to fill the role of offensive engine given his. That combination of factors makes this a pretty strong bet.

Ziaire Williams: 2 years, $12M (Nets)

Brooklyn didn't tender Williams a qualifying offer, which would have made him an unrestricted free agent, but instead he came back on this fairly cheap deal that has a team option on the second season. (I wouldn't be surprised if it's also non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed with a guarantee date sometime after July 1 so that the Nets can decide whether or not to pick it up and use him in a trade next offseason, but that hasn't been reported.) He hasn't really amounted to much yet in his career after the Grizzlies traded up for him a few years ago but I guess there is still theoretically room for him to become a three-and-D guy. Signing Williams to this contract now actually gives Brooklyn more cap space, because his new salary will be far lower than the $18.4 million cap hold he would have carried had he hit the market.

Update: June 29, 5:33 p.m.

Kyrie Irving: 3 years, $119M (Mavericks)

Dallas basically had to give Kyrie this deal after the disastrous Luka Doncic trade, even while knowing that he's likely to only play in two of the three seasons. (If he plays this year, it will be minimally toward the end of the season and he probably won't look like his best self.) This will take him through his age-35 season, and I probably wouldn't want to be paying him after that so it's at least a good job by the Mavs to limit this deal to three years — and at a lower average annual value than he was getting on his previous deal.

It's worth noting that his contract term now aligns with that of Anthony Davis, unless Davis declines his $62.8 million player option for the 2027-28 season — when Davis will be 34. That sure seems like the window for this current version of the Mavs until they start building the entire thing around Cooper Flagg. Whether Kyrie and AD can actually lead a contender during that time remains to be seen, but I'm on the skeptical side considering their age and injuries, and especially the strength of the rest of the West — even if Nico Harrison thought they looked like a championship team for the three quarters that they played together.

Fred VanVleet: 2 years, $50M (Rockets)

The Rockets declined FVV's $44.9 million team option for next season and got him back on a two-year deal that pays him only slightly more than that over its duration. There is a player option on the second year, though, and you'd expect that VanVleet's decision on that option will be the opposite of what the Rockets would prefer he'd do. (If he plays well enough that they want him to pick it up, he's likely to decline it and get paid more in free agency. If he declines precipitously to the point that they'd like him to decline it, he's likely to pick it up because he'll get paid more than he would on the open market.)

Still, Houston definitely needs his shooting, ball-handling, on on-ball defense this season — even after acquiring Kevin Durant — and this is a reasonable price to pay for it.

Naz Reid: 5 years, $125M (Timberwolves)

Julius Randle: 3 years, $100M (Timberwolves)

Reid's deal is clearly the most interesting contract so far. In terms of regular-season value, it's probably about right for him, as he brings an important skill set with his outside shooting from the frontcourt. His ability to play with any of Minnesota's other big men — or as the lone big himself against certain opposing lineups — also helps the Wolves maintain flexibility. And he's just about as big a fan favorite as there is in the NBA outside of the star-level players.

But he's not without his flaws. He's just an okay rebounder and he's a minus defender (opponents shot 61% at the rim against him in the regular season and 62% in the playoffs, for example), and the Wolves have been significantly worse (9.8 points per 100 possessions, to be exact) with him on the floor in 31 games and 736 minutes across their last two playoff runs despite the fact that he's shot the ball quite well (48-38-73). It's reasonable to question whether he's a positive-value player in a playoff setting, given his limitations. (It was also reasonable to say the same about Randle before this past season, before he looked electric in the first two rounds... and then terrible in the Western Conference Finals.)

Then there's Randle. He's getting about $8.3 million per year more than Reid, which makes sense given the difference in responsibility between the two. Randle is a frontcourt playmaker, while Reid is a frontcourt shooter. The former is significantly more valuable — especially on a team like Minnesota that doesn't have a playmaking point guard (Mike Conley is now a caretaker, off-ball type of player) and therefore needs to get shot-creation from other sources. Randle takes some pressure off of Anthony Edwards, who doesn't have to do absolutely everything with another guy out there who can bend the defense, albeit in different ways.

Randle was absolutely dynamite down the stretch of the season upon his return from injury, averaging 18-7-5 on 52-40-79 shooting splits. And as previously mentioned, he was electric through the first two rounds of the playoffs against the Lakers and Warriors (24-6-6 on 51-35-89 shooting with a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio) before falling apart against the Thunder (17-6-3 with more turnovers than assists and two horrendous shooting games in Minnesota's Game 2 and 4 losses). He put the "can't play in the playoffs" questions somewhat behind him but also showed that he's still quite vulnerable to the type of active, swarming defenses that he's going to have to face if the Wolves want to get over the top.

I'm torn here. I really like Reid, who is clearly a valuable player and is specifically so in the context of Minnesota's frontcourt, which needs his shooting to space the floor. But I'm also just not sure that he's the type of player you want to pay if you're going to be playing deep into the playoffs, where his flaws become more magnified. And if I were the Wolves, I would be trying to optimize for the playoffs rather than the regular season. Randle's deal seems more favorable because Minnesota is more in need of his skill set, which is also more difficult to find on the market.

But Minnesota is also now locked into paying Reid, Randle, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels around $120 million combined for the next three seasons, which is probably somewhere between fine and not-necessarily-ideal, depending on how you look at it. Both Reid and Randle also have player options on the final season of their deals, which again are likely to work against the Wolves for the reasons specified in the VanVleet section above. (As cap connoisseur Yossi Gozlan notes, Randle is possibly still trade-eligible, depending on how the extension is structured. That could be something to watch in the coming days and weeks.)

The Wolves are now likely to lose Nickel Alexander-Walker in unrestricted free agency, though, given how much money they have committed elsewhere. All else equal, I'd probably have preferred to retain NAW over Reid. That archetype of player is more important. But the Wolves seem ready to get more playing time for Terrence Shannon Jr. and possibly Rob Dillingham, whom they acquired with this eventuality clearly in mind, and they apparently value Reid's shooting more than Alexander-Walker's perimeter defense.

Davion Mitchell: 2 years, $24M (Heat)

Mitchell played really well in Miami after the trade from Toronto. He was tasked with more on-ball offensive responsibility than at any previous point in his career, and he showed that he can handle it. He even played well in Miami's first-round drubbing at the hands of the Cavaliers, averaging 15 points and 6 assists per night while shooting 61% from the field and making half his threes, albeit in a four-game sample. He's still a terrific on-ball defender, too. Even if the offensive improvement he showed regresses a bit (he probably won't shoot 45% from deep like he did in his late-season stint), he's still probably a useful rotation player at this point, and this price reflects that reality.

Sam Merrill: 4 years, $38M (Cavaliers)

Between this deal and the Lonzo Ball trade, the writing is on the wall that Ty Jerome won't be back in Cleveland next season. (Which is unsurprising. He should have a nice market.) The Cavs are over the second apron after this so perhaps there's another move coming to shed some salary, but this range of contract is basically the going rate for sniper-only type of guys, if not a little bit of a discount on that rate. (Isaiah Joe got 4 years, $48 million last year.) Merrill has yet to prove that he can be a useful playoff player, but he has value as a floor-spacer during the regular season and obviously fits well in Cleveland's style of offense.

Jaylin Williams: 3 years, $24M (Thunder)

Ajay Mitchell: 3 years, $9M (Thunder)

This is, unsurprisingly, a nice bit of business for OKC. The Thunder declined Williams' team option to make him a restricted free agent now rather than picking it up and letting him hit unrestricted free agency next offseason, then just re-signed him ahead of free agency anyway. Bobby Marks projects that they'll be just south of $2 million under the luxury tax line after this deal, and that can't be unintentional. $8 million per year for a third center isn't exactly cheap, but with the way they mix-and-match lineups, Williams plays more than your traditional third center — and he's very useful in specific playoff matchups, as we saw against the Nuggets in the second round.

Mitchell was in the rotation for a while to start the season before suffering an injury that kept him out from early January until the final two games of the regular season. He played essentially only in blowouts during the playoffs, but did get a short stint in Game 1 of the Finals. He looks like he can be a solid back-end rotation player and this is a perfectly fine deal to keep him around for a few more years.

James Harden: 2 years, $81.5M (Clippers)

Harden declined his player option and signed another 1 + 1 deal to remain in L.A. (The option year is only partially guaranteed.) This is always where this situation was going and it makes sense for both sides. The Clippers are probably a little bit too reliant on Harden for shot creation and should be prioritizing on-ball creation in free agency but he showed last year that he's still capable of driving efficient offense — at least until he winds up in a Game 7.

Bobby Portis: 3 years, $44M (Bucks)

I'm admittedly not the biggest Portis guy. He's often a black hole on offense and he's always been a liability on defense. But he does shoot it well (38% from three for his career and a smidge under 40% during his four years in Milwaukee) and he's a very good rebounder (his overall rebound rate is around the same as Reid's defensive rebound rate), and if we assume that Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't going anywhere, then Portis remains important to Milwaukee's spacing and ability to go "small." This contract covers his age-30 to 32 seasons, though the final year is for some reason a player option. I don't love it because Portis isn't my type of player, but I suppose I don't hate it, either. (Getting him for over $10 million per year less — and with two fewer guaranteed years — than Reid, who is a very similar player, seems fine, for example.)