The Bane Trade, From All Angles

Shams broke the news on Father's Day morning:

• Magic receive: Desmond Bane
• Grizzlies receive: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, 2025 ORL 1st (N0. 16), 2026 PHX 1st (very weirdly protected and swapped), 2028 ORL 1st, 2029 ORL 1st (swap), 2030 ORL 1st

Let's break things down by team, as per usual.

The Magic

This is a massive, very fun swing for Orlando, which clearly sees an opening in the East and thinks it can take advantage in what should be a comparatively down year in what is already the weaker conference.

Let's start with the cost. This is very much a "fuck them picks" type of deal from Orlando's perspective. I think the "four unprotected picks" framing is a little disingenuous given that the 2026 Phoenix pick is actually a complicated swap that Memphis already had part of the swap rights on, but three unprotected firsts and two swaps is definitely not nothing. It's a lot. It's most of Orlando's trade ammunition, even if the Magic did well to keep their most interesting young players (Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Tristan da Silva) and some additional assets (Denver's pick in this draft, No. 25 overall, plus their own 2026 pick) out of the trade.

I think it's worth going through the actual picks and investigating how much they might be worth. We already know the value of this year's pick, which is No. 16 overall. That's fairly valuable, but the Magic also have another late first (No. 25) from Denver and teams are for the most part okay with giving up non-lottery picks in deals like this one.

The 2026 pick from Phoenix is an incredibly complicated swap also involving Washington, which can get Phoenix's pick with a swap but only if its own pick falls inside the top 8, because otherwise it goes to New York. The Magic originally had the next swap rights in this deal, allowing them to take the less favorable of the Washington and Phoenix picks. But Memphis had swap rights after that, allowing the Grizzlies to take the least favorable of those three picks and give their own to the Magic. Now it seems like Orlando is just removed from the equation here, if I'm understanding the trade correctly.

But I'm honestly not sure what happens if the Wizards' pick heads to the Knicks and is less favorable than Phoenix's pick. Do the Grizzlies then just get swap rights to the Suns' pick outright? It doesn't seem that way from my reading, but I could also be reading it wrong. In the likely event that Washington finishes with the worst record among the three, the Grizzlies would then just have swap rights with the Suns, but based on my reading it seems like it's somehow possible that the Magic don't actually give anything up with this part of the deal because the swap rights they owned can possibly just not come into play and they didn't trade their own 2026 pick in the deal. Or maybe the Memphis-can-swap-with-Orlando part of the deal is still in tact. Honestly, I've lost my mind trying to parse it all.

Orlando did give up its own unprotected picks in 2028 and 2030 in the trade, and that carries with it some risk. But the bet is obviously that the Magic will still be quite good at the time. Bane is signed through 2029. Franz Wagner is signed through 2030. Paolo Banchero hasn't gotten his extension yet, but when he does, he'll be signed through 2031. You don't do this type of thing expecting to be in the lottery and consistently giving up very valuable picks. If the key players on the Magic play to expectations, they should at least be in the 20s, even if they're not necessarily the late-20s picks that belong the true championship contenders.

KCP and Anthony are included here mostly for salary-matching purposes. This is an acknowledgement that the KCP signing did not come close to working out, which it obviously didn't, and also that Anthony is kind of extraneous on a team with both Suggs and Black plus a trio of wings who will have the ball in their hands quite often. I honestly don't think they should be factored that much into the cost of the trade from Orlando's perspective, though they could factor into the value Memphis received for various reasons I'll get into below.

In terms of sheer value, it's an overpay. But it's a specific kind of overpay that teams are willing to make these days. More and more often in recent years, we've seen that teams essentially do not care how many first-round picks it costs to get Their Guy so long as they view themselves as a certain level of contender either before or after the completion of the deal. (See the trades for Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Pascal Siakam, Mikal Bridges, Dejounte Murray twice, etc.) In certain respects, that makes sense. The whole point of things is to win, and if the cost to win is high, then it's high and it is what it is and you take your shot. But your mileage may vary as to whether this deal actually lifts the Magic into the tier of contention where they shouldn't necessarily care about the pick volume necessary to complete it.

I guess I come down on the more skeptical side of that question, which is why I think that it's relevant that the truer "cost" of a deal like this isn't necessarily what it takes to go all in to begin with, but the lack of assets you're left with down the line if your all-in push doesn't quite get you where you want to go. If in a year or two, the Magic still view themselves as in need of a certain type of player, they may not have the ammunition to go get him because they'll be somewhat restricted in what they can send out. And they may not have the ammunition to replace some players they might have to shed in the future because of the all-in push on three rookie-max players, either. Plus they just won't have as many dice-roll opportunities (or as valuable of opportunities) in the draft to land another difference maker. You're obviously not going to hit on every draft pick, and you're even less likely to hit later in the round, but it's still a shot that you don't get to take.

Got all that? Great. Let's talk about the actual basketball now.

Bane makes a ton of sense for what the Magic actually need. He is a plus-plus shooter for a team that has desperately needing shooting as badly as any team has needed anything in recent seasons. The Magic are not merely the worst outside shooting team in the league. They were the worst this past season by almost 2 percentage points, even beyond the lowly Wizards. And Bane isn't just a good shooter. He's one of the best shooters in the NBA — both off the catch (43.2% from deep for his career) and off the dribble (38.5%). He doesn't fully solve Orlando's shooting problems — it's still a team otherwise full of average-at-best shooters — but he is a major salve for the issue. His presence on the floor alone should provide easier opportunities for the Magic's other stars than they have been afforded to date.

Bane also allows the Magic to continue their efforts to build around big wings, which seems like an organizational ethos. He, Banchero, and Wagner are all big, physical dudes. He's somewhat different than the type of guys the Magic under Jeff Weltman and John Hammond have targeted because he has a negative wingspan differential (i.e. his wingspan is smaller than his listed height), but his build and his effort and his IQ have mostly allowed him to be a strong defensive presence throughout his career, so he should fit right in with what Jamahl Mosley has done on that end of the floor. He and Jalen Suggs should form a really nice tandem in the backcourt, making it extremely difficult for opposing ball-handlers to create advantages at the point of attack.

Bane also gives the Magic another ball-handling option, which should take some of the burden off of both Banchero and Wagner, who have at times seemed over-extended trying to create absolutely everything off the dribble for this team. Bane has extensive experience working as the primary shot creator due to both all the time Ja Morant has missed due to injury or suspension and the minutes Bane played with Morant on the bench.

He's become a more aggressive driver (he's gone from averaging 7.6 drives per 100 possessions as a rookie to 8.7, 13.3, 16.1, and 15.6) and a better and more creative passer (he topped 10 potential assists per 36 minutes in each of the last two seasons) in recent years, and shifting some of the creation responsibility to him should free Banchero and Wagner to pursue only the best creation opportunities and alleviate some of the pressure they've had to take bad shots because there was little chance that anyone else on the floor could create something better. Banchero has been relatively inefficient for a player who has commanded the type of usage he's carried during his career (he's yet to truly approach league average in either effective field goal percentage or true shooting percentage), but he now shouldn't have to carry the 33.6% usage rate he had this season and should be able to slide back into a more comfortable 27-30% range, and he should receive a corresponding efficiency bump.

The idea of Bane, Banchero, and Wagner all screening for each other on and off the ball is definitely an intriguing one. Banchero, in particular, seems like he would benefit from running a lot of two-man action with Bane — whether of the pick-and-roll or dribble hand-off variety — both because it would provide him with cleaner driving lanes when he's the one with the ball and because he'd get some chances when popping to the perimeter and/or in the short roll that haven't presented themselves as often because the Magic have never had somebody who can consistently make threes off the dribble like Bane can. Banchero is a massive dude and giving him some more downhill opportunities that he doesn't have to create all by himself would do him a lot of good. And perhaps someone like Bane can loosen things up enough for Wagner that he can somehow rediscover his own jumper. Failing that, again, providing him with wider driving lanes should be beneficial in the same way that it will be for Banchero.

Having a trio of players who can create off the dribble and pass well for their position also provides each of them more opportunities to attack closing-out defenders on the weak side. Because of his shooting and his size Bane has always been good at doing that, and he's more of a playmaker in those situations now than he was when he came into the league. Wagner is a similar kind of attacker in those situations, but his shot has fallen off over the last two years. With both Banchero and Bane on the floor, he should be more open than ever, perhaps even open enough to get off that jumper that developed a hitch late last season. (Hopefully he hammers that out and goes back to actually hitting his treys.) Banchero simply hasn't had that many chances to attack when somebody created the advantage for him, but now should be afforded many more of those than before.

The Magic can stagger these guys in the rotation so that they always have two of them on the floor, or they can match-and-stagger two of them with each other and the other with Suggs. (How much growth Suggs can show as a creator is also about to become very important.) Mosley can get creative mixing and matching those pairings until he finds what works best for them offensively, because the Magic are probably going to be able to defend no matter which of them share the floor.

Where I get at least some concern is the fact that it still doesn't seem like the Magic have A Guy who can drive a top-10 offense. They have four guys who are each capable ball-handlers and probably average or better passers for their position, but nobody who is a truly elite threat to create for himself and others. Maybe Banchero or Wagner takes a leap with improved spacing or maybe Bane blossoms as more of a lead ball-handler with Suggs playing off the ball. But maybe they all settle in as B+ to A- creators and the Magic are still a team that struggles to consistently create advantages in the halfcourt. Either result seems entirely within the realm of possibility and neither seems all that much more likely than the other. And if the latter result comes to pass, then what is the ceiling of this group?

I like the big swing here, and I really like the fit of Bane with the other main characters in Orlando. I just think there's a possibility that the group tops out being just outside the group of true contenders, and if it does then it's a really high price to pay for the privilege of doing so.

The Grizzlies

Bane is a really good player and he made a lot of sense with Memphis' other star players, but the return here is probably one that was just too good for the Grizz to pass up. They got two rotation players who make varying degrees of sense for their current team, plus five first-round assets that have a wide range of value. That's a whole lot for a player who has been a borderline All-Star candidate a couple times and who has also had some trouble staying healthy (he's missed 77 games due to injury over the last three years) — even if you think that the best is yet to come for Bane and his career as he heads into what should be his physical prime.

I think what I wrote in the Memphis edition of Have A Good Summer has some relevance here:

The Grizzlies are several levels below the Thunder, which means they are several levels away from true contention in the Western Conference, because the Thunder are the bar now.

How does that square with the roster situation? Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane is a trio that theoretically fits together perfectly given the blend of skills available. Morant attacks the paint with (often reckless) abandon and puts pressure on the rim. Bane bombs away from deep and works as a secondary playmaker. Jackson does as well but also now brings a physical post and isolation game centered around his shoulder-dip hook shot. Morant is a weak point-of-attack defender but can make plays in passing lanes and transition defense. Bane doesn't have the requisite length to be a stopper but he knows what he's doing and works hard on that end. Jackson is an elite rim protector and space eraser.

It should all work, but this team has often seemed like less than the sum of its parts. So what gives? It's probably just that they're each individually not quite as good as the credit they get, or that they haven't been able to hit their respective ceilings at the same time. In Morant's case, it's been a while since we've seen the All-NBA guy. Bane is more of a fringe All-Star type. And Jackson is a "when he has an amazing year he'll be an All-Star and if a bunch of guys are ineligible he can make All-NBA" guy. They're all very good players, but three top-20 to 40 guys probably doesn't make you a real contender.

It sure seems like the Grizzlies agreed with that assessment and decided to pivot in another direction. (That final sentence also now seems like it could very much apply to the Magic.)

It's a shame that we won't really get to see that group try to hit the peak of its powers. The Grizzlies were seemingly ascendent and set to start on an incredible run of contention just a few years ago: armed with a trio of stars and good depth and a ton of draft assets — not unlike how we viewed the Thunder last year, but perhaps at a lower level due to the volume of picks available. But it all started unraveling when Morant got injured and suspended, and he hasn't been quite the same since. Bane and Jackson both also had their own injury issues, and it just seems like, again, they never got to play together when they were each at their best. And so the experiment is over, seemingly before it truly began.

The question now is what, exactly, the new direction is. And make no mistake, Memphis has a bunch of different options here.

Will the Grizzlies simply hang onto KCP and Anthony and decide that they're building around Morant and Jackson and filling things out with mid-tier-salaried rotation players and young guys on rookie-scale contracts? Will they spin KCP and/or Anthony off to another destination? Will they try to bundle those guys with some of the picks (and maybe someone like Brandon Clarke, though I think they'd be understandably reluctant to deal him given his production and comparatively low salary) to land a big fish who they think is better and/or a better fit than Bane? Will they just cut bait on this entire era altogether and decide to trade Ja or JJJ or both and truly reload with an absolute crap-ton of future assets?

Again, all of those things seem like they're potentially on the table, though I am extremely skeptical of the idea that they're now going into full reset mode and blowing it up, even though some have already thrown that idea around. Jackson can actually be renegotiated and extended with the cap space Memphis has available this summer, and I believe Morant becomes extension-eligible next year. Whether they're actually signed to those extensions will tell us a lot about what the Grizzlies plan to do in both the near- and long-term future. After trading Bane, and previously Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia at the deadline, Memphis has plenty of room to pay Jackson, retain Santi Aldama, and still pursue other upgrades.

I think it's likely that the Grizzlies view KCP as a short-term answer as a three-and-D wing, and it's reasonable to bet on him a bounceback season after he had a down year in Orlando. He won't be playing with a Nikola Jokic-level creator like he was in Denver, but what he did with the Magic was still out of character given what he'd previously shown in his career. The difference between his playing style and Bane's also probably means more on-ball opportunities for someone like Jaylen Wells, though it remains to be seen whether that's a good idea.

The presence of Scottie Pippen Jr. as a very good backup point guard and more-than-occasional fill-in starter probably makes Anthony somewhat extraneous. (Unless Memphis decides to cut bait on KCP and instead start Pippen next to Morant. Then Anthony is probably the backup point guard. But even in a situation where KCP is gone, I think Aldama is a more likely fifth starter than Pippen, so again that makes Anthony expendable.) He's on an expiring contract and, given Memphis' cap situation, can be moved for players who make quite a bit more salary than him because of the way matching rules work for teams that are under the cap or just over it but below the luxury-tax line or aprons. Maybe he can fetch a player who makes for a better fit.

The Grizzlies have long had an ability to print back-end rotation players on an assembly line with late firsts, seconds, and an undrafted free-agent signings, and they now have a war chest of picks to attack the draft with abandon or to throw into deals to pursue upgrades, starting with the No. 16 pick in this draft. (They also nailed the Bane pick at No. 30 and look what he just turned into.) Their current rotation isn't quite as deep now as it has been in recent seasons after sending so many of those guys packing with their latest series of deals, but they have the ability to replenish the coffers while maintaining their group of Morant, Jackson, Wells, Zach Edey, Aldama, Clarke, Pippen, and Vince Williams, and they still have guys like GG Jackson, John Konchar, and Jay Huff as well.

Any number of those guys, plus KCP and Anthony, can either stay in the rotation or be packaged together for an upgrade, though of course we have long talked about the Grizzlies making a consolidation trade and they haven't really done it. They have a deep roster and a ton of flexibility to do pretty much anything they want this summer. They're not quite the next-hot-thing team they were a few years ago, but they're also not going away.