Three Things NBA Preview: Miami Heat
As I detailed a few weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts for each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Sept. 1-5: Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Sept. 8-12: Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL)
- Sept. 15-19: Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Sept. 22-26: Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Sept. 29-Oct. 3: Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
- Oct. 6-10: Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS)
So without further ado, let's get to the Miami Heat, who made their seemingly-annual appearance in the play-in tournament and then lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Norm Powell, the replacement
After trading Duncan Robinson to Detroit, the Heat need somebody to fill the role he had in their offense. Powell can do that and more.
The quick-trigger shooting? Powell can do that. The dribble hand-off stuff with Bam Adebayo? Powell can do that. The flying off screens and shooting on the move? Powell can do that.
Powell's a 39.8% career three-point shooter who has been over 40% in five of the last seven seasons, including each of the last two. How much of that was due to having James Harden making plays for him, I guess we'll find out, but it's not like he was a slouch of a shooter before hooking up with Harden.
He doesn't do the hand-off stuff quite as often as Robinson (Robinson averaged 12.3 dribble hand-offs per 100 possessions last season, via GeniusIQ, while Powell averaged 6.7), but he replicates the off-ball screen stuff (Robinson came off 21.6 off-ball screens per 100 while Powell used an incredible 23.3 of them). And Powell's hand-offs (1.095 points per direct vs. 1.007) and off-ball screens (1.087 points per direct screen vs. 0.983) were more efficient than they were for Robinson last year, which is a nice note.
But he brings more to the table than Robinson because he has some straight-line drive stuff that Robinson just doesn't have. Powell has averaged at least 11.5 drives per 100 possessions in four of the last five seasons and was at 14.3 per 100 last year. He's also scored at least 1.02 points per direct drive in each of those seasons and was at 1.093 last year. Robinson has never averaged more than 9.4 drives per 100 possessions and never topped 1.053 points per direct drive in any of the last five seasons.
The Heat were actually sixth in drives per 100 possessions last season, but just 16th in points per drive — and 20th after they traded Jimmy Butler. They need someone else who can put pressure on the rim and actually draw some help when he's on his way there, and Powell can do that. He's not the greatest or more willing passer (he tied for the league's fifth-lowest pass rate among the 86 players who averaged 8-plus drives per game last year), but being able to pierce the defense from the outside in remains important and he can do it.
