Three Things NBA Preview: Memphis Grizzlies
As I detailed a few weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts previewing each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL) (Podcast)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA) (Podcast)
- Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the Memphis Grizzlies, who saw their season spiral out of control, fired their coach, and then bowed out quickly in the playoffs.
Ja Morant, enigma
I talked about this on the podcast with Mo. When are we ever going to get back the version of Ja Morant that looked like he was going to be a perennial All-NBA guy? Will it happen at all? (I've linked directly to the portion of the pod where we discussed it below.)
Especially without Desmond Bane, the theory of this team revolves around Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. being able to hit the apex level of their respective skill sets. Even when he's been on the court, Morant has not done that over two-plus seasons. And of course, being on the court has been the biggest problem. Due to suspensions and injuries, he's been limited to just 120 of 246 possible games since that 2021-22 season when he won Most Improved Player, finished seventh in MVP voting, and made Second Team All-NBA.
It's hard to fathom given how long it seems like he's been in the league, but Morant is still only 26 years old. He's technically not yet in his physical prime. So despite the fact that we're now four seasons removed from his best year in the NBA, there's reason to think he might be able to recapture some of that magic if he can just stay on the floor. But he does have to be qualitatively better than he has been since that season, not just more consistently available.
Morant made 34.4% of his threes during that breakout season. He's made just 30.5% of them since. He shot 71% at the rim and took 33% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket that season. He's taken 26.7% of his shots there and finished at a 67% clip since then.
If he's not going to consistently make jumpers, he needs to get back to getting to the rim more often and finishing more consistently when he does. A 67% rate is still good, but there's a reason that the only season in his career where he's had an above-average true-shooting percentage is also the one where he had his best finishing season.
The two issues are connected, though. When he was making a respectable share of his threes, he had more room to get to the rim, even while defenders were still typically giving him space to shoot off the dribble.
We need to see him attack downhill more often, because that's very obviously when he's at his best. He was at around 30.7 drives per 100 possessions in 2021-22, per GeniusIQ tracking, and 30.3 per 100 the following season. He was down to 26.3 drives per 100 last year. You couldn't feel his presence in the paint as often, and it was noticeable when watching their games.
Again, though, some of that may have been due to the style of offense the Grizzlies played. I want to see if the number ticks back up this season, and will especially be watching that early in the year. (If he's on the court. He already rolled an ankle in practice.) Being able to hit more consistently from outside would obviously go a long way toward helping it bounce back regardless, because if he has to be guarded outside the paint, he's going to blow by dudes on the regular.
Morant needs to take better care of the ball than he specifically did last year, when his turnover rate shot back up to 15% after hovering in the 12% range for a few seasons. It'll be interesting to see how much of that was due to the eclectic motion offense the Grizzlies ran for most of the season, and whether it rebounds as they presumably run a more traditional, pick-and-roll-based attack under Tuomas Iisalo this season. (They were much more traditional down the stretch of last year after firing Taylor Jenkins, Noah LaRoche, and Patrick St. Andrews late in the season.) If he's in more familiar, more comfortable situations with the ball in his hands, he should be able to get back to limiting those turnovers a bit more.
What the Grizzlies need from him defensively is somewhat secondary to the offense because the offense doesn't really work without him being at his best and they still have ways to help cover up for his defensive weaknesses, but needless to say he cannot be a sieve on that end of the floor. He hasn't been quite that bad, obviously, but he has the potential to be a significantly more impactful defender than he has been at times in his career, whether due to the offensive burden he's carried, his relatively slight build, or bouts with a lack of effort and attentiveness.
