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Three Things NBA Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

Jared Dubin

Jared Dubin

— 7 min read
Three Things NBA Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

As I detailed a few weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.

The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts for each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):

So without further ado, let's get to the Los Angeles Lakers, who pulled off one of the all-time heist trades but then were dumped from the playoffs in short order by the Minnesota Timberwolves.

DominAyton, domination?

I wrote pretty extensively about the Deandre Ayton signing in the free agency live blog. Here's the excerpt:

This was immediately the rumor as soon as Ayton was bought out by the Blazers, and here it somewhat-unsurprisingly is. The initial reporting of the signing was hilarious, with the detail that Ayton will make $34 million total this season instead of the value of this actual contract with L.A., the cherrypicked stats, and the idea that because they were the Nos. 1 and 3 picks in the same draft, Ayton and Luka Doncic are now building blocks for the Lakers' future.

If Ayton was all that, he wouldn't have gotten bought out weeks before his 27th birthday. He wouldn't be signing a two-year deal for a portion of the mid-level exception. He did, at least, get a player option, according to Jake Fischer, so if he plays well then he can hit the open market and try to get paid next offseason. If he doesn't, then he'll opt in and collect another $8.5 million next year. But there is nothing about this that signals that he is a building block of any kind.

Nonetheless, he is obviously a clear talent upgrade for the Lakers. This is a team that was starting Jaxson Hayes at center in real live NBA playoff games. That is totally untenable, and it proved to be so as the Lakers were summarily eliminated by the Timberwolves. The Lakers were very clearly not going to do better than this given what was available on the center market this offseason for a team in their salary position. Ayton at his best can hit 15-to-18-foot jump shots, punish switches in the post, make plays as a short-roll guy, and yes, protect the immediate area around the rim and even switch in space.

Of course, we know it's not that simple. Ayton fancies himself a No. 1 offensive option and wants to touch the ball and take shots. Too often, he takes those shots whether they are available or not. Too often, he shies away from using his size and strength and takes fadeaways instead of trucking smaller defenders. Too often, he doesn't get back on defense. Too often, he doesn't set solid screens. Too often, he is just not as locked in as he needs to be to the details of winning basketball.

It is going to be somewhere between fascinating and hilarious to watch him play for J.J. Redick, who is obsessed with those details and makes no secret of it when he's less than thrilled with how a player is executing them. (Defense specifically is going to be an adventure to say the least.) His head looked like it was going to fly off its axis at about 25 different points last season. And we know that LeBron James (assuming he's still around, which is apparently a question that's still floating out there in the ether) won't put up with the Ayton shenanigans either. But maybe — maybe — LeBron and/or Luka can bring the best out of him, like Chris Paul did for 2-3 years. That seems to be the hope here. And maybe it really does work out that way.

But you can probably put me in the camp of people who think this will not go very well. I think the most likely scenario here is that he has good counting stats but they're mostly empty calories and he's a neutral or negative presence. The second-most likely is that he totally flames out. And the least likely is that he rediscovers his peak form and gets majorly paid next offseason. But I've been wrong before.

Two-plus months later, I'm slightly more optimistic — but only slightly. There's almost no way a talented big man can fail offensively when being put in position to succeed by Doncic and James. He's going to walk into 15 points per game pretty easily. He's a good rebounder, so he should get around 8 of those a night as well. My questions largely come on defense, where the Lakers need a lot of help. Speaking of...

Defense, optional?

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