Should anyone want to trade for Ja Morant?

It sure seems like we are getting close to the end of the line for Ja Morant in Memphis. I'm going to assume that you have not been living under a rock and at least have an awareness of what happened with Ja's suspension following a listless performance against the Lakers earlier this year, but you may not have yet seen his follow-up press availability after the Pistons game in which he returned.

It was... not great, Bob.

Yesterday, Marc Spears went on ESPN talking about how the league views Morant these days. It was also not great, Bob.

I heard the Hoop Collective guys (I can't remember which Tim it was that made the initial point) talking about how the production to pain in the ass ratio has gotten to the point where it's no longer worth it, and honestly, that seems right.

The reason you know it's right is because if it wasn't, there would be absolutely no discussion about whether the Grizzlies should trade Morant and/or who would even be interested. The juice would clearly still be worth the squeeze and the conversation would never start. We were in that place for a while, but now we're not.

And we're no longer in that place for both pain in the ass reasons and production reasons — which is the real problem here, at least from the Grizzlies' perspective. Ja just isn't the same player he was even a few years ago. It's pretty clear both on film and in his numbers.

The biggest and most noticeable thing is that the guy just does not get to the rim anymore. At his best, Morant was an indomitable force who could get wherever he wanted on the floor, and nobody could come close to stopping. That is not remotely the case these days.

I even wrote about it in the Grizzlies' Three Things Preview:

Morant made 34.4% of his threes during that breakout season. He's made just 30.5% of them since. He shot 71% at the rim and took 33% of his shots from within 3 feet of the basket that season. He's taken 26.7% of his shots there and finished at a 67% clip since then.

If he's not going to consistently make jumpers, he needs to get back to getting to the rim more often and finishing more consistently when he does. A 67% rate is still good, but there's a reason that the only season in his career where he's had an above-average true-shooting percentage is also the one where he had his best finishing season.

The two issues are connected, though. When he was making a respectable share of his threes, he had more room to get to the rim, even while defenders were still typically giving him space to shoot off the dribble.

We need to see him attack downhill more often, because that's very obviously when he's at his best. He was at around 30.7 drives per 100 possessions in 2021-22, per GeniusIQ tracking, and 30.3 per 100 the following season. He was down to 26.3 drives per 100 last year. You couldn't feel his presence in the paint as often, and it was noticeable when watching their games.

This season, the trends are not being reversed — they're continuing even further in the wrong direction. Morant is driving just 22.9 times per 100 possessions. He's taking a paltry 16.4% of his shots within three feet of the rim and connecting on only 65% of those attempts. This is no longer the guy I once declared would be The Next Great Point Guard, because the thing that made him great is no longer a prominent aspect of his game.

And if he's not that guy, then is there anybody that really thinks they are a Ja Morant away from being a contender? Or from elevating themselves from being a mere contender to being a title team?

You could theoretically argue that teams like the Bucks, Heat, Raptors, Magic, Wizards, Nets, Rockets, Timberwolves, Suns, Mavericks, and Pelicans have a "need" at point guard to some degree or another. You can quibble with the degrees but I think that's the list of teams. Should any of those teams trade for Morant?

I think you can make a decent argument for the Rockets and Timberwolves doing it because they are really close to being true inner-circle contenders and they have an obvious need for someone to organize their offense and create off the dribble from the outside-in. (I think you can maybe include the Raptors in the mix, especially given the way Immanuel Quickley is playing to start the season, but Morant wouldn't elevate them to being anywhere close to a contender.) And you could make an argument that the Pelicans would do it because they will apparently do just about anything so you simply can't rule it out. But we'll put them to the side for now.

The Rockets improbably have the NBA's top offense to date, but a lot of that is based on their offensive rebounding and foul drawing, and you'd expect their incredibly high effective field-goal percentage (57.0%) to come down at some point, at which point the lack of a traditional point guard will presumably become somewhat more glaring. The Wolves are 10th in offensive rating despite playing some games without Anthony Edwards, but they're playing Donte DiVincenzo at the point when Edwards is healthy and Mike Conley (whom I love but who is my age and who can't play more than 20-25-ish minutes a night at most) there when he's not, and we know their offense can bog down when teams devote additional resources to making sure Edwards can't beat them off the dribble.

So the bones of the "hey this guy who is really good when he's at his best is available and probably at a price that doesn't reflect his true skill level; maybe we should see if we can tap back into what made him so great" reasoning are there for both teams.

But again, I go back to, why would Morant be their target? If he even the guy they should want? He can't and/or won't shoot. He doesn't defend. He's clearly been a headache for the Grizzlies. Why wouldn't these teams target somebody else?

Maybe Ime Udoka or Chris Finch is the guy that could get through to him. But maybe not. Maybe he gets his joy back playing in another city for another team and another coach. But maybe not. If you're those teams, wouldn't it be better to bet on more of a sure thing? Especially when you're so close? Why risk your chances on a player who no longer looks like the guy who can elevate your team, hoping he recaptures something he last showed four years ago? Who was the last player to be four years removed from his prime, and get back to that level? Morant is only 26 years old so it's theoretically possible, but I'd argue it's not exactly likely.

I'm rambling and repeating myself at this point, but it's all my long-winded way of saying what Spears said: even if the Grizzlies decide they want to get out of the Morant business, there simply might not be a market for his services. At least not one that allows them to recoup on their investment — and especially not in such a way that the people of Memphis (who still adore Morant) would understand it. That's a tough situation to be in. I don't envy them at all.