2024 NBA Free Agency: Live Analysis
Running thoughts on early signings, with larger stories to come next week
Here’s how I’m once again handling free agency this year. I’ll use this space to provide quick thoughts on most (if not necessarily all) of the signings that get reported this weekend, as they come. This post will be free and unlocked.
Next week or the week after, I’ll take deeper looks at some of the more impactful moves with one-off analysis and/or opinion posts. Those posts will come with free previews and then be at least partially behind the paywall, like most of what I wrote during the playoffs.
It’s pretty much the same way I use to do things at FiveThirtyEight in the past, except I’m doing it here. Let’s dig in…
Update: July 1, 9:48 p.m.
Goga Bitadze: 3 years, $25M (Magic)
Gary Harris: 2 years, $14M (Magic)
I’m interested to see what happens with Moe Wagner now that Bitadze got himself a raise. They sort of split the backup center gig in Orlando last year, and they played only 8 minutes together. With the Magic apparently working to renegotiate and extend Jonathan Isaac (via Yahoo!’s Jake Fischer), who was also playing center by the end of last season, there might not be room for him. It’d be weird if they declined his non-guaranteed deal, though, instead of trying to get something for him via trade, if he really was leaving. So like I said, I’m interested to see what happens there. But Bitadze is a good young backup who has been highly productive in limited minutes. Orlando's defensive rating barely budged with Bitadze on the court in place of Wendell Carter Jr., and the offensive rating was virtually identical. Harris isn’t going to start anymore after the Magic signed KCP, but he’s a good guy to have around as a veteran backup. A $7 million per year deal is the kind of thing that seems rich but is a drop in the bucket these days. It could be useful if the Magic eventually want to make a trade, and they don’t have to sign him with cap space because they have his Bird Rights.
Garrett Temple: 1 year, Minimum (Raptors)
Temple is a very good vet/culture guy to have around. Teammates love him and he’s an all-around good dude.
Kris Dunn: No Terms Reported (Clippers)
Mo Bamba: No Terms Reported (Clippers)
I’m assuming these are both one-year, minimum deals. Russell Westbrook is apparently not long for L.A., and Dunn fits with the type of players the Clippers have pursued since Paul George chose Philly. (i.e. defense-first) He’s turned himself into a really useful player, and should make the Clippers particularly annoying to play against when he shares the court with Derrick Jones Jr. At least, on one end of the floor. Bamba is still more interesting in theory than reality, but with Mason Plumlee moving on, the Clippers needed another center.
Update: July 1, 3:45 p.m.
Aaron Holiday: 2 years, $10M (Rockets)
Holiday has shown a lot of improvement over the past couple of years. He’s turned into a really nice backup point guard, and his ball pressure defense carries a lot of value for Houston. For $5 million a year, that’s well worth it.
De’Anthony Melton: 1 year, $12.8M (Warriors)
I’m not sure if Melton’s getting the non-taxpayer mid-level exception from the Warriors here, or if he’s coming in via a trade exception created by sending Klay to Dallas. Either way, it’s a good pickup; he played well for the Sixers over the last two years. His activity level should help on defense, and he can knock down open shots when afforded them. It’s only a one-year deal, though, and if Golden State is lagging at the deadline, I could see Melton being sought after by a team that didn’t use the MLE and is willing to give up draft capital, or something along those lines.
Update: July 1, 2:57 p.m.
Klay Thompson: 3 years, $50M (Mavericks) S&T
This will apparently be a sign-and-trade that sends Josh Green to the Hornets, but we don’t yet known what the Warriors will get in the deal. Either way, it’s the official end of one of the best eras (and best duos) in the history of American professional basketball. And you know what, I understand how it shook out this way, even if it feels wrong on some level. I understand the Warriors not wanting to give Klay a golden parachute to end his career. I understand Klay nonetheless feeling slighted by the Warriors’ offers. I understand the Mavs going after a high-level shooter to pair with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. I suppose I even understand giving Klay a guaranteed third year, because that has to be the case in sign-and-trades and the Mavs already used part of their mid-level exception to sign Naji Marshall. I’m not sure people understand the degree to which Thompson’s defense has slipped, and I’m interested to see how that affects the Mavs on the court — especially if Luka and Kyrie aren’t as engaged defensively as they were during the playoff run. Still, it’s certainly going to be fun to see Luka firing passes to an open shooter and having that shooter be KLAY FREAKING THOMPSON instead of, like, Tim Hardaway Jr. or Dorian Finney-Smith or any of other various wings the Mavs have employed over the years. At the very least, this should be wildly fascinating to watch.
Nic Batum: 2 years, $9.6M (Clippers)
This one is a bit of a swerve as it was reported earlier today that Batum might be headed to the Spurs. I would have loved to see him play with Wemby, but instead it looks like the Clips are getting at least some of the band back together, but with Derrick Jones Jr. (see below) replacing Paul George. I guess they’re gonna try to tread water in the first season of the new arena and see if they can pivot to finding another star at some point, though that should prove fairly difficult considering OKC still owns a bunch of their draft assets.
Update: July 1, 12:23 p.m.
Tobias Harris: 2 years, $52M (Pistons)
There was a lot of snickering about this deal on Twitter, but it’s somewhat like the Rockets bringing in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks last year, I think, for several reasons: a) the Pistons have to spend money somewhere; b) they desperately need someone to model professionalism and leadership to a rudderless team; c) it’s only a two-year deal; and d) he can at least provide tertiary scoring and spacing so Detroit can better evaluate its young players. Detroit is not going to suddenly win a bunch more games because it signed him, but Harris is not nearly as bad as the public reaction to his performance against the Knicks suggests. He’s still an average or better starter, just with some limitations. (Luckily, those limitations don’t really matter all that much on a team this bad.) This isn’t a great contract or anything, but it’s not laughable, either.
Drew Eubanks: 2 years, $10M (Jazz)
The Jazz now have a whole bunch of centers, which makes me think another move must be coming at some point. I’d keep my eye on John Collins and/or Walker Kessler deals — especially if Utah also brings Omer Yurtseven back.
Delon Wright: 1 year, Minimum (Bucks)
Wright is presumably filling the slot that went to Patrick Beverley toward the end of last season. He’s not the type of player who will change your life but he’s a solid enough backup point guard, and the Bucks need to fill out their roster with guys on minimum deals. You can very obviously do worse than this for that price.
Update: July 1, 10:17 a.m.
Isaiah Hartenstein: 3 years, $87M (Thunder)
Well, we knew Hartenstein was going to have a significant market. This significant? Wow. It’s certainly a bit of an overpay on a per-year basis; but he’s only 26 years old, the deal’s final season will be the first year of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams’ extensions and the final year of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s current deal, and Hartenstein both helps solve OKC’s biggest issue (rebounding) and doesn’t really change the fundamental way the team wants to play because of his ability to move the ball as a short-roller and dribble hand-off hub. He can play both with Chet and as the lone big, and Chet can do the same. He’s going to be a fantastic pick-and-roll partner for SGA and J-Dub in the same way he was for Jalen Brunson. And OKC’s defense is somehow going to get even better after adding both him and Alex Caruso. This team is loaded.
Even better, from OKC’s perspective: the deal is descending and non-guaranteed for the final season (via Stefan Bondy), so it can really end before the Chet/J-Dub extensions kick in. And Hartenstein gets the two higher-paying years up front. Good for both sides.
Update: July 1, 9:43 a.m.
Aaron Wiggins: 5 years, $47M (Thunder)
Isaiah Joe: 4 years, $48M (Thunder)
I momentarily forgot about an aspect of the Early Bird Rights rule and thought that this Joe signing would have to come out of OKC’s cap space, but he can sign a deal for a starting salary of 105% of the league average, which means that the Thunder can still use all of their cap room before executing these two deals. Bringing these two guys back was important; Joe is the team’s best shooter and pretty much the only guy on the roster who can shoot on the move. His utility in small-small ball screens with either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams makes them really tough to guard, and it’s a five-alarm fire for defenses whenever he’s open on the perimeter. I’d like to see him get even more aggressive and get back into the double-digit three-point attempts per 36 minutes range, but this is a good deal. Wiggins looked like the Thunder’s best option to replace Josh Giddey in the starting lineup at different points during the playoffs; and while he's not going to shoot 49% from three like he did last year, he's now at 39.4% across 386 career attempts. He doesn't shoot enough to get defended like a marksman, but knocking them down when you do get left open is important, and his wing defense gives OKC another option beyond Lu Dort and Alex Caruso.
Jalen Smith: 3 years, $27M (Bulls)
This is going to come out of part of the Bulls’ mid-level exception. I can’t say I know what it is Chicago is doing just yet, but Smith at least Smith is only 23 years old and theoretically has upside to be more than what he’s been to date: a solid backup center who isn’t always his team’s best option to be the backup in certain matchups. I would assume that Chicago will finally try to trade Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine and really start over, but you can never put anything past these guys.
Update: July 1, 8:07 a.m.
Paul George: 4 years, $211.6M (76ers)
Kelly Oubre Jr.: 2 years, $16.3M (76ers)
So, the Sixers will be one of the teams on which I do a deeper dive once they fill out the entirety of their roster, because they will very obviously be the team undergoing the most change from one year to the next. But for now, yeah, they absolutely had to land PG once it became clear that players like OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and even LeBron James were all staying with their respective teams — and especially once it became clear that even backup options like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, and more were likely headed elsewhere. (Although the order of operations there might be wrong, unless the Sixers weren’t tampering, which they probably were because everyone does and it’s just a matter of if you pretend well enough.) Like, this is what the big cap space plan was all for.
PG himself is an excellent fit as a secondary/tertiary creator alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, and we know he doesn’t mind sliding into that type of role. His combination of catch-and-shoot skill — and the ability access it on the move — and closeout-beating is an asset to any offense; and he remains an excellent defender, particularly away from the ball. When he and Oubre share the court with Embiid, Philly’s defense is going to be dynamite. I'm not sure you really want to be paying Paul George $56.6 million when he is 37 during the 2027-28 season (which comes with a player option), but the Sixers didn't have much of a choice but to pony up the best possible offer, and there are ways to get out of pretty much any contract these days anyway. Now, the team doctors become the most important people in the organization, if they weren’t already.
Derrick Jones Jr.: 3 years, $30M (Clippers)
I’m not entirely sure what the Clippers are doing, but this is a solid valuation for Jones, who should be able to at least pick up some of PG’s defensive responsibilities. Perhaps he can replicate the shooting improvement he showed last season with James Harden firing him the passes instead of Luka Doncic, as well. Anyway, L.A.’s statement regarding not re-signing PG was… quite something.
Update: June 30, 10:13 p.m.
Naji Marshall: 3 years, $27M (Mavericks)
This is pretty straightforwardly the best value deal (from a team perspective) that we’ve seen so far. Marshall’s ability to defend big wings is exactly what Dallas needs alongside players like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He’s maybe not 100% as clean a fit as Derrick Jones Jr. because the latter is better equipped to defend smaller guards in addition to wings, but Marshall fits in just fine and is apparently coming quite a bit cheaper than Jones. Marshall is only a 31% three-point shooter for his career, but he did make 38.7% last year and he's about to be gifted the easiest looks of his life, so maybe he can sustain that. (It'd be nice to see a little bit higher volume, though.) Still, love this for Dallas.
Mason Plumlee: 1 year, Minimum (Suns)
Welcome to the latest round of Phoenix Suns veteran’s minimum signings! Plumlee now comes full circle to back up Jusuf Nurkic, for whom he was traded from Portland to Denver back in the day. He’s a perfectly capable backup center who can play 15 or so minutes a night, and that’s about as well as you can expect to do for the minimum. Nice pickup.
Update: June 30, 8:48 p.m.
Chris Paul: 1 year, $11M (Spurs)
I wrote about the merits of this one this morning:
Tre Jones is a perfectly adequate stopgap option, and the options available on the market this offseason aren't necessarily all that inspiring. I'd still be pounding the pavement for a long-term solution at that spot. Castle did play point guard in high school and could probably get some reps at the position, but I'd be hesitant to give him the keys full time; Wemby's development is too important to entrust to him while he still has to play great defense and fix his jumper. If Chris Paul ends up getting waived by Golden State, he seems like an excellent option. The opportunity to shepherd Wemby’s development and play out his last year or two for Gregg Popovich would have to be appealing, you’d think. And the Spurs could still use that interregnum to find the longer-term answer.
Unsurprisingly, I feel then same way now as I did then. Love this for both sides.
Eric Gordon: 1 year, Minimum (76ers)
Philly is getting all of its ancillary signings lined up for whenever PG signs on the dotted line. I like Gordon’s late-career strategy of latching on with the latest superteam to try to get a ring. It’s a good bit. (And he can still shoot, so Philly should get some use out of him.)
Jonas Valanciunas: 3 years, $30M (Wizards)
Sure, why not? The Wiz aren’t going anywhere but with Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, and Bilal Coulibaly around, you don’t want the only veteran influences to be Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. Plus, JV will do a lot of the dirty work stuff to help those guys succeed.
Update: June 30, 7:44 p.m.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 3 years, $66M (Magic)
The Nuggets not being willing to go here despite being a title contender smack dab in the middle of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray’s primes, I mean… what are we doing? They’ve now lost KCP and Bruce Brown for nothing in return over the last two offseasons. Bang-up job, guys.
Anyway, the Magic! Love this signing for them. KCP and Jalen Suggs are going to be annoying as hell for opposing guards to play against, and adding someone who fits Orlando’s defensive philosophy but can also shoot (!!!!) is huge for this team. (Orlando was 25th in three-point attempt rate and 24th in three-point percentage last season.) He should help make things easier for Suggs, and especially for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. They still need another creator but the shooting and defense make for a glove-perfect fit. Having to give him a player option on the third year isn’t ideal but is something you absolutely do to land this kind of role player on a team that has designs on being in the playoffs on a yearly basis, and hopefully contending soon.
Update: June 30, 7:25 p.m.
Andre Drummond: 2 years, $10M+ (76ers)
Drummond will presumably be signed with part of the room exception after Philly finishes the rest of its offseason work. Drummond was probably the best backup center of the Joel Embiid era, and it makes a lot of sense that the Sixers targeted him after they got hammered on the boards by the Knicks in the playoffs. Drummond won’t change your life (except in the games Embiid sits when he goes berserk for someone’s fantasy basketball team) but he also probably won’t lose you a game in the six minutes he’s on the court, and that’s an improvement over the backup center situation last year.
Kevin Porter Jr.: 2 years, Minimum? (Clippers)
Porter was unceremoniously traded and waived last offseason after he pled guilty to charges of reckless assault and harassment. Lawrence Frank said the Clippers needed to take chances on “fallen angels” (via Law Murray of The Athletic), and apparently all Porter needed to do to be one of those guys — with a player option (!!) on his second year — was play halfway decent basketball in Greece for all of six games. Who’s excited for the Miles Bridges deal next?
Neemias Queta: “Multi-year deal” (Celtics)
I’m assuming this is a minimum contract, but it’s mostly notable because the Celtics are fully running it back with all of their guys from last year.
Update: June 30, 6:23 p.m.
James Harden: 2 years, $70M (Clippers)
The Clippers were basically backed into a corner and had to do this — especially given that it looks increasingly like they are likely to lose Paul George. Making the second year a player option is Not Great Bob, even though, again, the Clippers basically had to give it to him because he had them over a barrel. But they knew they were going to re-sign Harden when they traded for him, and if George returns then the money is mostly immaterial except to Steve Ballmer, who won’t notice it anyway. (If George leaves, I believe the Clips will have enough room to use the mid-level exception, though maybe not quite all of it.) Harden mostly played well after arriving in L.A. even if his usage rate sank to "first two years in OKC" levels. He willingly gave up the ball more often so Kawhi and PG could control some of the offense, and he actually started taking more catch-and-shoot threes for the first time in for-fucking-ever. He remains a significant minus on defense but the dude can run an offense, and the Clips need that whether PG is there or not.
Luke Kornet: 1 year, Minimum? (Celtics)
Kornet has been a really good third center for the Celtics since his arrival. He fits with what they want to do and doesn’t try to over-extend himself. He’s going to be more important for the first stretch of the season with Kristaps Porzingis out, assuming Boston doesn’t bring in another center ahead of him.
Kevin Love: 2 years, $8.3M (Heat)
I’m assuming this is a two-year deal for Love at the minimum, which for him starts at just over $4 million because he’s been in the league for 10-plus years. He’s been a perfectly solid depth piece for Miami, which uses him against certain opponents but not others. He can still shoot and pass, and every once in a while he’ll slap up a double-double in like 18 minutes. And even though he’s a minus on defense, Erik Spoelstra has ways to cover up for that.
Update: June 30, 5.46 p.m.
Max Christie: 4 years, $32M (Lakers)
I can’t say I understand this one. Christie was restricted, which means L.A. had the right to match any offer. If LeBron is taking less money to fit someone into the mid-level exception, why did Christie need to be paid this much before the market even opened? Did the Lakers think someone was bidding more than this for a player has played less than 1,500 minutes in two years and hasn't definitively proven to be a rotation player? Apparently they have designs on making him one next year but he seemingly fell out of the mix toward the end of last season and it’s hard to say that he does anything at an above-average level just yet. (I can’t say he’s ever stood out in either a good or bad way when I’ve watched him.) You pay for future production, not past, but there is a whole lot of projection going on here and it’s hard to find the basis for it. The Lakers could know something we don’t — like the Knicks did when they extended Deuce McBride immediately after trading Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett — but this is a lot to pay for that type or “I know something you don’t know” type of deal, which is supposed to be a deep discount.
Pre-Free Agency Deals
Malik Monk: 4 years, $78M (Kings)
All members of The Monastery stand up! I am unabashedly in the tank for Malik Monk, and I love this for both him and the Kings. We’ve come a long way since that suspension in Charlotte, and he’s done nothing but raise his value every year since leaving the Hornets. He has developed into arguably the NBA’s best sixth man (he got my officially unofficial 6MOY vote last season), and the leap he took as a playmaker in 2023-24 was genuinely crucial to Sacramento’s success. He is essentially both the backup point guard and a microwave scorer, and his chemistry with Domantas Sabonis is remarkable. At south of $20 million per year, this is a steal in the current cap environment.
Pascal Siakam: 4 years, $189.5M (Pacers)
I briefly touched on Siakam in my Central Division offseason preview. As noted, we knew this was coming, and it was important for the Pacers to lock him down for the long term. His fit with Tyrese Haliburton was excellent, and his defensive versatility allowed Rick Carlisle to get creative during the playoffs. Giving the Pacers another on-ball creation option was something they really needed, as well.
OG Anunoby: 5 years, $212.5M (Knicks)
The Knicks were in even more of a “they absolutely have to pay this guy” position than the Pacers, given what they surrendered for Anunoby and then surrendered the Mikal Bridges. I’m still not convinced that second deal is in its final form just yet, but my god, having those two patrolling the wings together is going to be a sight to see. Given that they are both plus outside shooters who can do at least a little bit of secondary creation (and Bridges can do much more than that), the offense shouldn’t take too far of a step back even if Donte DiVincenzo heads to the bench. The Knicks absolutely obliterated teams whenever OG and Jalen Brunson were on the floor together, outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per 100 possessions across 923 regular-season and postseason minutes combined.
Nicolas Claxton: 4 years, $100M (Nets)
I’m torn on this deal. On the one hand, Claxton is a good but obviously sub-star center, and I think that is maybe the worst archetype of player in the league to whom to give a contract. On the other, Claxton actually is quite good, especially on defense, and $25 million per year only works out to around 17% of the salary cap. So, it doesn’t seem that damaging. That said, the Nets almost surely aren’t going to be any good during the run of this deal, and the value to them probably matters less than the value it will hold in an eventual trade, and that’s something we can’t really know just yet.
Immanuel Quickley: 5 years, $175M (Raptors)
The sticker shock of seeing Quickley getting $35 million per year fades, at least to me, when you realize that his contract will never take up more than 21% of the cap, and that he will be at most the 15th-highest-paid point guard in the NBA next season. That seems perfectly reasonable for a player of his caliber, who has proven to be a high-level shooter and took his on-ball facilitation to another level in Toronto, and who has consistently been an excellent team defender. He can get bullied by bigger guards a bit, but there’s more than enough here to justify the investment — especially given his fit next to Scottie Barnes, who will get his max extension when free agency kicks off.
Royce O’Neale: 4 years, $44M (Suns)
Bol Bol: 1 year, Minimum (Suns)
I predicted in my Pacific Division preview that O’Neale would be brought back on a deal that probably slightly overpays him so that he could be used as a walking trade exception if he didn’t meet expectations. That didn’t quite happen here, and I think it’s notable that his contract pays less than the full mid-level exception, so if the Suns do want to trade him for that type of player, they won’t be able to do it because they’d end up taking back more money than they send out, and as a second apron team they won’t be able to aggregate salaries. That said, O’Neale is exactly the kind of player they need alongside their stars, and they needed to bring him back. Bol, meanwhile, finally looked like a real rotation guy for stretches of last season, and getting him back in the fold is nice for Phoenix as well.
DeAndre Jordan: 1 year, Minimum (Nuggets)
Bringing back your best player’s buddy, who also happens to be a Vibes Guy, on a minimum deal is good business. D.J. can fill in as the backup center every once in a while when the Nuggets are in a pinch, and they don’t need him to do more than that.
Patrick Williams: 5 years, $90M (Bulls)
I realize this is going to sound strange after saying I thought the Claxton and Quickley deals were solid, but I don’t love this. Sure, $18M per year is basically fifth starter money at this point, but the difference between Williams, and Claxton and Quickley, is that we know those guys are good. I’m not sure we can 100% say the same about Williams yet. He’s essentially had one stretch of his career where he was aggressive enough to be a truly positive force offensively, and while the defense is good, it's not quite Stopper level. He’s only 23 years old; the upside is obviously still there — I'm just not convinced he'll hit it. (Also he went to Florida State so he’s bad even if he’s good.)
Alex Len: 1 year, Minimum (Kings)
This is a perfectly fine move to make for Sacramento, bringing back one of its two backup centers on the cheap.
Obi Toppin: 4 years, $60M (Pacers)
I don’t really know why, but I feel better about this than the Williams deal. Maybe because it seems clearer that the Pacers view Toppin is a good piece, but not a core piece. Or something along those lines. In any event, Toppin became much more aggressive offensively last season in Indiana, where he is a perfect fit in the run-and-gun offense. He routinely beats other bigs down the floor, and he was significantly more assertive in his decision-making, whether it was shoot/pass/drive stuff or which pass to make on the move. His defense is still questionable but he at least has good foot speed, and in the regular season at least, he’s not that much of a target. (Good teams like the Celtics can still make him look silly, as they did in the Eastern Conference Finals.