There is less than a week remaining in the regular season, so it's time to walk through the end-of-season awards. Once again, we’re breaking each of the awards down by category, starting today with the individual awards and finishing up later this week with the All-NBA, All-Defense, and All-Rookie teams.
As usual, my votes are officially unofficial. In other words: I don't have an actual ballot. But given the time and resources I put into the covering the league and the fact that you have been following along with me throughout the season, I’m going to lay out how I would have voted, if I’d been afforded a vote.
Without further ado…
Most Valuable Player
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Victor Wembanyama
- Nikola Jokic
- Luka Doncic (for now)
- Jaylen Brown
I viewed this as essentially three different races: SGA vs. Wemby for first; Jokic vs. Luka for third; and Brown vs. Anthony Edwards, Donovan Mitchell, and Kawhi Leonard for fifth. I discussed the latter race on last week's podcast with Mo, so I won't get into detail about that here. But now that Doncic will miss the rest of the season and could end up being ineligible for awards, things could get shaken up even further here. If he's ineligible, I would move Mitchell into the fifth spot on the ballot behind Brown, who would move up to fourth. Luka could still win an arbitration case based on extraordinary circumstances because he missed two games for the birth of his child, so I broke down his case below anyway.
As a reminder, here's how I decide my MVP vote:
The MVP criteria I like to use is admittedly somewhat amorphous. I try to identify “the player who made the greatest individual contribution to his team’s ability to win basketball games during the regular season.”
I specifically say “greatest” rather than merely “best” or “most important” because I think it allows for the combination of those things, while also affording you the opportunity to consider differences in playing time, which I do think should matter. If two players played at roughly the same level but one played 500 more minutes, the one with the larger minute load almost certainly made a greater contribution.
I also try not to reward or penalize players for the relative quality of their teammates, and I try not to live in alternate realities where the reasoning depends on counterfactuals that are both unprovable and unfalsifiable. I take the season as it actually happened and base my conclusions on the actual facts.
SGA's case is pretty incredible. He's at 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per night. He's shooting 55 got damn percent from the field, as a guard, connecting on over 60% of his twos and — for the first time since 2021 (when he played only 35 games) — over 38% his his threes. Overall, he's got a 33.5% usage rate and is carrying a career-best 66.4% true shooting percentage. There is exactly one player in NBA history who has used at least 33% of his team's possessions and made at least 66% of his true shot attempts, and it's SGA this season.
He's leading the league in all kinds of all-in-one advanced numbers: Win Shares and Win Shares Per 48 Minutes at Basketball-Reference; Estimated Plus-Minus and EPM Wins at Dunks and Threes; LAKER and Wins Above Replacement at Neil Paine's site; ESPN's Net Points, and RAPM. (He's a mere third in BBall-Index's LEBRON, second in LEBRON Wins Above Replacement, and fourth in DPM.) The Thunder absolutely demolish teams when he's on the floor, blasting them by 15.6 points per 100 possessions with an offense and defense that would rank first in the league.
He is the best isolation player and the best driver in the league. He is automatic pulling up or stepping back from the elbows and in the short corner along the baseline. He gets to the free-throw line at will — which, despite protestations to the contrary from a great many people, is actually a very good thing — and basically never misses from the stripe. He's obviously not the best or even second- or third-best defender in his own starting lineup, but he's a very good one and an active contributor to what is by far the best defense in the NBA.
Wemby's case is phenomenal as well. He's at 24.9 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, and a league-best 3.1 blocks per game, with a 51-35-83 shooting line. He was even more hilariously dominant through February and March when the Spurs went on an insane 25-2 run. He is (spoiler alert) the cinch Defensive Player of the Year, so far ahead of the next-closest player that we might as well create a different award for everyone else, because as long as he is eligible there's probably not going to be a realistic case for anyone else to take home the trophy for a very long time.
He's sixth in Win Shares, fourth in Win Shares Per 48, second in EPM, fourth in EPM Wins, fourth in both LAKER and LAKER WAR, second in RAPM, first in LEBRON, sixth in LEBRON WAR, fourth in Net Points, and second in DPM. The Spurs have crushed opponents with Wemby on the floor to an even greater degree than have the Thunder with SGA out there, lambasting them by 16.4 points per 100 possessions with an offense and defense that would rank as the best in the league.
There is also just a feeling attached to watching him that is different than the one that comes with watching anyone else. He warps the floor to a degree that nobody else can touch. If you wanted to say that he has already become the best player in the league, I don't think I would argue all that forcefully against the claim. You can make a really good argument in favor it.
What the hair-splitting came down to for me in the end is the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander has played around 20% more minutes this season than has Wembanyama. Even if you want to argue that, when on the floor, Wemby has been the better and more impactful player than SGA (and I think even that claim is debatable, as evidenced by the all-in-one metrics cited above), I don't think you can make a reasonable argument that he is been 20 percent better, which I think he kind of needs to be in order to make up the gap in minutes played.
Jokic and Doncic each have cases based on overwhelming production.
Jokic is leading the league in both rebounds and assists, which has literally never happened in the history of American professional basketball. He's also assisted on over 50% of his teammates' baskets for the first time in his career, which is — to use a technical term — batshit insane. The only guys to ever assist on a greater share of teammate baskets are John Stockton, Russell Westbrook (in his own MVP season), Chris Paul, Steve Nash, and Rajon Rondo (in the lockout season). Those are all obviously point guards. Jokic is a center, in case you forgot. The next-closest season for a center on the all-time list is Jokic himself at 46.6% in 2023.
Jokic is also shooting 57.1% of the field and 38.3% from deep, good for a 67.2% true shooting percentage. The Nuggets clobber teams when he's on the floor by 10.4 points per 100 possessions and they are an incredible 13.8 points per 100 worse when he sits, which is somehow an improvement over the last few years but is still terrible.
The thing holding him back is that he just hasn't been as good since his return from injury as he was prior to missing 16 games in January. He was shooting 60.5% from the field and 43.5% from deep before getting hurt, but he's only at 53.4% and 32.3% since then — and in a not-insignificant sample of games. His turnovers have also spiked and his defense has been at or near his worst levels since he became an MVP-caliber player.
Doncic, on the other hand, is leading the league in scoring at 33.5 points per game. He's carrying an astronomical 38% usage rate and still has a 61.6% true shooting percentage. The only other players to carry a usage rate above 35% with a true-shooting mark over 60% are James Harden, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo — each of whom did it three times, just like Doncic. And only Harden and Giannis did it with at least the 38% usage Doncic has. (Neither of them won MVP in that season, for what it's worth, as they finished third and second, respectively.)
The list of players to average 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists per game, meanwhile, is just one person long, and that person (Doncic) has now done it twice: this year and in 2024. He's been even better in the second half of the season, pouring in 34.7 points a night with 7.5 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 2.0 steals per game while shooting 48% from the field and 40% from three on 12 attempts per game. He's also been more locked in defensively (and not just in the steals department), which is a nice change of pace.
The things holding Doncic back from ascending to the very top of the list are his pre-All-Star shooting splits (47% from the field and 34.5% from deep), his total aversion to defense early in the season, and the fact that the Lakers are only plus-3.9 per 100 possessions with him on the court. That latter figure is much worse than it is for the other top candidates, and that has to matter on some level. What you have to weigh is whether an absolutely overwhelming two months cancels out or even outweighs what happened before that (when, to be clear, Doncic was still amazing but not quite as amazing as he's been down the stretch). Doncic might also not actually be eligible if he doesn't play one more game this week. He's only at 64 after tweaking his hamstring last Thursday in Oklahoma City.
It's close, but the totality of their efforts throughout the season makes me lean slightly toward Jokic, at least in part because of the way the Nuggets have performed with him on the floor compared with the way the Lakers have with Luka out there. That's not the only factor, of course, but it's probably the one that tipped things over the edge. Hairs have to be split because you can't have players tied on the ballot, and being merely the fourth-most valuable player in the league compared with the third is nothing to sneeze at. Either way, you're a top 1% player in the NBA this season.
Defensive Player of the Year
- Victor Wembanyama
- Chet Holmgren
- Scottie Barnes
Wemby is the best defender in the world and words can barely capture the degree to which this is true. I'm not sure it's even worth bothering to explain any further, so I won't.
If Wemby didn't exist, I really believe that we would think Holmgren is an alien. He actually has even better rim protection numbers than Wemby does, with the tracking data showing that he leads the league in field-goal percentage allowed when within five feet of both the rim and the shooter (48.2%) by more than 5 full percentage points. (Among players who challenge at least 5 shots per game. When you expand the sample to 4 shots per game he is a mere second behind Isaiah Stewart, who would himself have an argument for being on this list if he qualified via the games played criteria.) That doesn't account for the sheer volume of shots that Wemby prevents from ever happening, which dwarfs the number that Holmgren does (which is probably still large), but it remains wildly impressive nonetheless.
Holmgren is also one of the game's best help defenders, with GeniusIQ showing that he is second to only Wembanyama (and by mere hundredths of a point) in points allowed per direct drive (0.896 compared with Wemby's 0.889) when he provides help. He's also second behind only Wemby in points allowed per direct pick when defender the screener in pick and rolls, and he's handled himself well when tasked with switching onto the perimeter, which admittedly hasn't been all that often but the numbers when he's done it are pretty insane (0.700 points per direct pick). Oklahoma City's defensive rating, whether Holmgren plays with another big man in Isaiah Hartenstein or Jaylin Williams or as the lone center, is outrageously good, and while some of that is due to their fantastic perimeter defenders, a lot of it is due to everything Holmgren brings behind them as well.
There were a ton of candidates for the third spot on this ballot: Barnes, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, OG Anunoby, Kawhi Leonard, Amen and Ausar Thompson, Evan Mobley, Stephon Castle, and more that I am definitely forgetting off the top of my head but will factor in when releasing my All-Defensive Teams later this week.
Barnes' versatility carried the day. He is an elite rim protector and an elite perimeter stopper and an elite helper. He takes on the toughest matchups night after night, regardless of position, which is something that can't necessarily be said about anybody else. He's guarded each of point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers on at least 14% of his defensive possessions, per BBall-Index, making him one of just six players in the league who can make that claim (minimum 1,000 minutes played). The only other one among that group in the mix for All-Defense or DPOY is Anunoby, and Barnes has been considerably more consistent throughout the season.
Rookie of the Year
- Kon Knueppel
- Cooper Flagg
- VJ Edgecombe
I still think Flagg will be the best player from this class when all is said and done, but I don't think he's been better than his former college teammate this season.
As I wrote at the All-Star break: Flagg is going to become one of just eight rookies in the history of the NBA to average at least 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The others on that list are Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Sidney Wicks, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Luka Doncic. It's incredible that he's even being challenged in this race, let alone that he might not actually win it in the end, but that's how good Knueppel has been.
I broke down Knueppel's journey to setting the all-time rookie record for threes made, but he didn't just do that — he leads the entire damn league in threes, and he'll obviously become the first rookie to do so. His shooting is one of the single-best skills not just among rookies, but among all NBA players. The guy is shooting 43% on 8 attempts per game from outside the three-point arc. The only players to ever hit both of those benchmarks are Stephen Curry (three times) and Duncan Robinson. It's an all-time great shooting season.
That alone might be enough to carry the day in the end, but Knueppel isn't a one-dimensional player. He's a threat as a secondary creator working off LaMelo Ball and/or Brandon Miller. He's a smart, capable passer (3.4 assists per night). He's a good positional rebounder (5.4 per game). He's contributed to Charlotte's defense; he's not a glaring liability on that end like most rookies. (Neither is Flagg, who is legitimately a pretty good defender, to be fair.)
As such, it isn't surprising that the all-in-one metrics case for Knueppel is pretty unimpeachable. He leads rookies in EPM, EPM Wins, DPM, Net Points, LEBRON WAR, LAKER WAR, Win Shares, and RAPM. He's top-three in LEBRON and LAKER and Win Shares Per 48 Minutes.
Flagg is a transition menace, and he's already excellent at finishing around or through contact at the rim. (He's made 77.2% of his shots within three feet of the basket.) He's already a good, versatile defender. (I think I expected him to be slightly better on that end than he actually was this year, but that's probably in part on me not accounting for the transition from college to the NBA well enough, and in part on the Mavs not having as strong a defensive infrastructure behind him as expected due to their various frontcourt injuries.) He has been wildly productive, as previously mentioned.
He was asked to play out of position and run the point to start the season, and he had some relative struggles during that stretch as the Mavericks foundered, but he rebounded from that stretch with a legitimately incredible run from the start of December through his injury in early February: 22.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 2 stocks per game with a 49-34-81 shooting line and quality defense. He showed every stitch of the talent that we expected to see from him throughout this year.
But Flagg's drop-off since his return from injury (he was at 42.4% from the field and 18.2% from deep before going insane against Orlando and L.A. over the weekend) matters to me on some level, especially given how consistent Knueppel has been for the entire season. It's not Flagg's fault that he's had to play a more central and arguably more varied role and thus not been as efficient or consistent as has Knueppel. But when determining which player had the better season of the two, it nudges me toward the Charlotte sharpshooter.
You could maybe make an argument that Dylan Harper has been better than Edgecombe on a per-minute basis this year, but Edgecombe has played almost 1,000 more minutes. That's basically impossible to overcome unless the per-minute gap is astronomically wide, and I don't think it is.
Sixth Man of the Year
- Keldon Johnson
- Jaime Jaquez
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
I feel pretty strongly that this is the top three to be picking from. You could make an argument for guys like Naz Reid, Reed Sheppard, Ajay Mitchell, or Isaiah Stewart (there's no 65-game minimum for this award like there is for so many others), but I feel as though this trio separated from the rest of the field.
In past years, I might have leaned toward Jaquez due to his centrality to the Heat's success relative to Johnson's for the Spurs, but a) the Spurs had so much more success than the Heat that the difference is somewhat balanced out; and b) I think Johnson was better enough on an individual level to tip the scales ever so slightly in his direction anyway.
Johnson has made over 60% of his twos and 38% of his threes this season. Jaquez has made 54% of his twos and just 30% of his treys. Johnson has bullied defenders with straight-line drives in the same way Jaquez has, but he's shot over 57% on those drives compared with Jaquez's 47% mark, per NBA Advanced Stats. Jaquez has been the (pretty significantly) better passer and even the slightly better per-minute rebounder, but the difference in efficiency is real.
Johnson has also been the better defender by both the eye test and basically every metric we have to measure defense, and he's ahead of Jaquez in all of the all-in-one stats I cited for the MVP candidates above. Seriously, all of them. Even the ones that are cumulative rather than per-minute, despite the fact that Jaquez has played more minutes. That matters to me on some level, too.
I wrote when the Nuggets signed Hardaway last summer that he was exactly the kind of player who would land in Denver and have a career year playing alongside Nikola Jokic, and that's pretty much exactly what's happened. He's shot a career-best 41% from beyond the arc, feasting on the easy (and tough) looks that Jokic and Jamal Murray have created for him. With Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun and Peyton Watson missing a ton of time and Cam Johnson struggling relative to expectations for much of the year, Hardaway has been one of the steadiest contributors to Denver's season, and almost certainly the best value signing of the year, given that he only got a minimum contract.
Most Improved Player
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
- Ryan Rollins
- Jalen Duren
I hate this award. Trying to figure out who is the most better than they were the year before is basically an impossible task. I think any of these guys, plus Collin Gillespie, Jalen Johnson, Neemias Queta, Deni Avdija, and maybe even more that I'm forgetting are all totally reasonable choices. 🤷♂️
Coach of the Year
- Joe Mazzulla
- Mitch Johnson
- J.B. Bickerstaff
I had a very hard time with the second and third spots on this ballot, but not so much with the first. Mazzulla's ability to navigate the team through the loss of not just Jayson Tatum for three-quarters of the season, but also Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet in free agency or trades, and bring them to the No. 2 seed in the East when they were expected to fall into the play-in tournament at best has been remarkable. And I do feel that the structure Mazzulla has implemented on both offense and defense has played arguably the biggest role in the Celtics' surpassing all reasonable expectations.
After Mazzulla, you could easily go with any of Bickerstaff, Ott, Charles Lee, or Jordan Ott in second or third, I think.
The Spurs have exceeded their preseason over-under by the largest margin in the league. They have a top-five offense and a top-five defense. They have found a way to integrate all three guards — Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and rookie Dylan Harper — into the mix on both offense and defense. (And they got Harper, the No. 2 pick in the draft, to buy into a somewhat limited role for his stature off the bench.) They navigated shifting Harrison Barnes out of the starting lineup in favor of Julian Champagnie and didn't miss a beat. (Barnes had started every single game since coming off the bench for seven games during the 2015-16 season.) They held the fort during the stretch of the season that Wembanyama missed due to injury. Replacing Gregg Popovich full time wasn't going to be easy for anyone, either, but Johnson looks like he's going to be quite successful in this role.
The Suns have exceeded my expectations by more than any other team in the league, and Ott's ability to get full buy-in, especially on defense and in terms of how hard his team plays every single night, is perhaps the biggest factor in that over-performance. It feels more than a little insane to not have him or Lee (who engineered a remarkable in-season turnaround) on here, but such is life when you're chasing the guy who led his team to the No. 1 seed in the East and survived life without his best player down the stretch of the season.
