Three Things NBA Preview: Toronto Raptors

As I detailed a couple weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.

The schedule for those posts will be as follows:

• Sept. 1-5: Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR)
• Sept. 8-12: Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL)
• Sept. 15-19: Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS)
• Sept. 22-26: Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC)
• Sept. 29-Oct. 3: Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
• Oct. 6-10: Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS)

So without further ado, let's get to the Toronto Raptors, who basically refused to put NBA players on the floor down the stretch of their season and finished in 11th place in the Eastern Conference.

Where are we going?

I wrote about my big-picture thoughts on the Raptors a few weeks ago:

During that 22-23 campaign, they traded Khem Birch, a top-six protected 2024 first-round pick (which ended up landing at No. 8 overall and became Rob Dillingham), and two second-round picks for Jakob Poeltl, whom they have since given two new contracts (four years, $78M in the summer of 2023, and a four-year, $104M extension earlier this month).

Months later, they sent Anunoby, Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn to the Knicks for Immanuel Quickley (signed last summer to a five-year, $175M deal), R.J. Barrett, and a second-round pick that became Jonathan Mogbo. Not long after that, they moved Siakam to Indiana for Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, and three first-round picks. One of those firsts was used on Ja'Kobe Walter. One was sent with Lewis and Otto Porter Jr. to the Jazz for Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji. The third pick was packaged with Brown, Olynyk, and a 2026 second-rounder for Brandon Ingram (who was promptly furnished with a three-year, $120M extension) at this year's deadline.

In other words, they turned Anunoby, Siakam, Achiuwa, Flynn, Porter, Birch, the No. 8 pick, and three second-round picks into Poeltl, Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Agbaji, Walter, and Mogbo. Folks, that is not good stuff.

It's all left them in a very familiar spot: with a talented but capped-out roster heavy on "talent" but light on stardom (in the on-court sense, not the marketability one, which I don't really care about), and with pieces that are individually varying degrees of intriguing but seemingly don't have a cohesive theory to their being assembled together.

They're a bit of a younger team now than they were a few years ago, but only in theory. Their minutes-weighted age during the 22-23 season was 25.8 years old. It was 24.5 years old last year, but at least some of that was because so many of their regulars missed time and they were heaping minutes onto guys Jamison Battle, A.J. Lawson. Colin Castleton, and more (in addition to Walter, Mogbo, Gradey Dick, and Jamal Shead) down the stretch of the season. Their main five guys this coming year will be 24 (Barnes), 25 (Barrett), 26 (Quickley), 27 (Ingram), and 30 (Poeltl).

They're young, but they're not, like, the Wizards. They're also expensive. That quintet alone will make around $156.6M this season. That's already more than the salary cap. And Barrett is the only one not under contract for more than the next two years, so they're looking at pretty significant salary commitments for the long haul to a group that, as mentioned earlier, does not even look like it guarantees a spot in the play-in.

You can read that full post right here.

Immanuel Quickley, swing factor

Quickley has played in just 71 games since arriving in Toronto. He's done pretty well as the starter in that time, averaging 17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per night with 42-38-85 shooting splits. (Just like early in his career with the Knicks, he's struggled from two-point range. He eventually got better in that area with New York.) But again, he just hasn't been on the court often enough.

He's going to be a massively important player for this team for several reasons, but the biggest one is that he's the only guy among the starters who can shoot threes off the dribble. He's made 38.3% of his threes after two or more dribbles over the last two seasons.

By comparison, Brandon Ingram has made 26.8%, R.J. Barrett has made 26.7%, and Scottie Barnes has made 23.0%. None of them has taken an incredibly high volume of those shots (Quickley has almost taken more than all of them combined), but that's because those guys can't make them. The Raps absolutely need the threat of off-the-dribble shooting to loosen up defenses, and they need Quickley to provide it.

They also need him to be a strong pick-and-roll operator. He and Jakob Poeltl have flashed good chemistry on the rare occasions they've been on the floor together, but it'll be interesting to see how they fare in what should be a cramped spacing environment. (More on that in a second.) He also can't get bullied at the point of attack on defense, because they have vulnerabilities elsewhere on the court and may not be able to make up for giving up copious amounts of dribble penetration.

Beyond the actual on-court stuff, this is Quickley's chance to prove that his five-year, $135 million contract isn't an albatross. I've said several times on the podcast with Mo (including this week) that it probably isn't quite as bad as it seems on the surface because Quickley will never be more than the 16th-highest paid point guard in the NBA and the percentage of the cap it takes up will likely keep decreasing, but the fact of the matter is the Raptors didn't need to go that high.

We've seen that with most of the restricted free agents this offseason. They could have played hardball with him the same way the Warriors and Bulls and 76ers and Nets have been with Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas. The contract was a mistake, whether it's an albatross or night. But Quickley has a chance to make it look much more palatable.

The wing, a crowd

From the same story I linked above:

How exactly is this team supposed to work on the floor?

I don't understand how Barnes, Ingram, and Barrett are meant to play together. They're all big wings who are minus shooters and best with the ball in their hands, attacking downhill. You need big wings to win in today's NBA, obviously, but they only fit together if their skill sets are complementary and they can provide space for each other to operate. I don't see how that can happen here. And I don't see how they can all be on the floor together while also giving Quickley the on-ball reps he needs — and that the Raptors need him to take because he's the only off-the-dribble outside shooting threat they have.

With those four guys, it seems like a team that's built to be offense-first... but the idea that those four guys are going to power a top-10 offense seems rather outlandish. The Raptors barely managed to score at that level when they had FVV, OG, Siakam, and Kyle Lowry. It's part of why they eventually decided to break up that team, which hung on for a couple years after the 2019 title but because of the continual talent drain, kept dropping off year over year.

This is probably where Raptors fans tell you about the top-10 defense they had for a couple months toward the end of the season, but a) it was March and April; b) none of the guys who are supposed to be playing for you now, were actually playing then (especially Ingram, who didn't play at all); and c) again, it was March and April. Barnes can be a terror, Poeltl is a solid rim protector, and Quickley is a good team defender, but they don't really seem like the foundation of a great defense, either.

Really, the Raps need Barnes to become the type of player they paid him to become. He was over-extended last year offensively with all the other guys out so often, and he didn't handle it very well. Hopefully slotted into a more manageable role, he'll be better on that end. They also need him to provide rim-protection help to Poeltl (who is solid but not great in that area), because they're going to have some vulnerabilities on the perimeter, both with the starters on the floor and when the younger bench guys come in the game.

Ingram... I just don't get the theory here, man. I know he can get some buckets in pick and roll and isolation, but that's not really what this version of the Raptors needs from that spot on the roster. They need more shooting. They need more defense. They don't need another ball-in-the-hands-and-not-much-else guy.

With Barnes and Ingram there, it really seems to me that Barrett sticks out like a sore thumb among this group. Toronto gave Barnes a max contract and extended Ingram at a number that is totally unpalatable for any other team, and presumably doesn't want to move him anyway after having just traded a first-round pick for him and then giving him said contract.

Barrett is here in large part because the Knicks and Raptors needed salary ballast for the Anunoby-Quickley trade. The Raptors don't have nearly as much invested in him as they do in those other three guys. (Or Poeltl.) I predicted on the podcast that Toronto will trade Barrett this season, and I feel pretty strongly that it's going to happen whether it's for positive or negative value, because the Raptors really just need to find a better on-court fit. I'm just not sure who would possibly be hankering to trade for R.J. Barrett, or what they'd give up that would benefit the Raptors more than having another guy who can attack the rim, beat some closeouts, and make some nice passes when he has his head up.