Three Things NBA Preview: Houston Rockets
As I detailed a few weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts previewing each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL) (Podcast)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
- Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the Houston Rockets, who bowed out of the playoffs in the first round before swinging one of the most interesting trades of the offseason. I've talked a whole lot about the Rockets this summer so I'm going to be excerpting some of my own thoughts here so that I don't repeat simply repeat myself.
Reed Sheppard, come on down
Here's some of what I said about the Sheppard situation on the podcast with Mo:
Reed Sheppard suddenly becomes one of the most important players in the league. Like if he's good, all of a sudden the Rockets, you're thinking about them a little bit differently than you are today.
If he's not ready yet, it's a significant problem because all of a sudden you're talking about Amen Thompson having to be essentially a full time point guard in addition to all the responsibilities that he's going to carry defensively and all the other stuff that he can do offensively, get them out on the break, set screens, grab offensive rebounds. Like if he's on the ball all the time that, you know, that takes away a lot of what he's good at elsewhere offensively with the offensive rebounding and the cutting and things like that, being able to set screens, use them in different ways.
If he's always, you know, the point guard in their sets, that takes away from a lot of what he does. And it's just it's really difficult for a guy who has point guard skills but isn't a natural point guard to be asked to do that all the time.
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I would think it's either going to be Jabari Smith or Tari Eason — like two of the three of Jabari, Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith, you would think — unless they're going to start Sheppard to get the shooting out there.
But that kind of goes against the defensive ethos of the team because he's someone that you can probably hunt at times, especially in starting lineups. Just because, like, I know he had really good steal numbers when he was in college, he contends, he fights... but he's small and he's slight. He's going to be a target for teams if you put him out there.
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The shooting obviously is a big thing. Sheppard can replicate [VanVleet's] shooting and maybe more, but then you don't have the defense. You don't have, like you don't even know necessarily where you're getting, just the ball handling and getting you into your offense from.
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I think that he needs to show that he's gotten stronger and that he can finish inside the arc. He didn't shoot great for three, but that'll come around.
But I think he might have shot under 40% on twos last year, if I'm remembering correctly, or in the low 40s. And that's just not tenable, at least not unless you know you're a a great defender like VanVleet is, or was at his peak. And he's still a very good one.
You got to be able to to finish inside the arc better than [Sheppard] did.
You can watch the full podcast right here. We start with the discussion about VanVleet's injury and how it affects the Rockets and what Sheppard's role might be, so you don't have to fast-forward to any specific time stamp.
Sheppard only played 654 minutes last season. He only shot 33.8% from deep. He did, as mentioned, only shoot 37.1% from two. He averaged 12-4-4 per 36 minutes, which incidentally is almost exactly what he averaged in 29 minutes per game at Kentucky. (In his three starts, he did average a fantastic 19.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per night while making over half his threes. Which is obviously quite impressive and encouraging. And one of those starts came against the Thunder, in a game where he went for 25 points and 5 assists while making 3 of 7 from deep.) But he shot a preposterous 52% from three at Kentucky and made 55.5% of his twos there as well.
As I said, I think he needs to get stronger and finish better at the rim and inside the arc. And I think he needs to prove that he won't get bullied at the point of attack defensively — even with all those athletes potentially out there to protect him in the event that he can't guard on the ball.
But the Rockets do have options. They don't have to ask him to just step in and run the show. And because of his shooting, which I do think will bounce back and get into at least the mid-to-high 30s from deep, they can play him and Thompson as co-lead ball-handlers and sort of cobble together the point guard position. I think that works.
