Three Things NBA Preview: Denver Nuggets
As I detailed a few weeks ago, I’m once again re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Some of them might be narrative-based, some might be stats, and some might include video. But they'll all be focused on the 2025-26 campaign.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (podcasts for each division with Mo Dakhil are in parentheses):
- Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR) (Podcast)
- Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL)
- Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS) (Podcast)
- Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC) (Podcast)
- Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
- Oct. 6-10: Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS) (Podcast)
So without further ado, let's get to the Denver Nuggets, who pushed the eventual champion Thunder to the brink before ultimately bowing out in a seven-game second-round series.
Cam Johnson, upgrade
I loved Denver's trade for Johnson, whom the Nuggets acquired for Michael Porter Jr. and a deep-future first-round pick. Johnson made one of the All-Dubin Teams last year thanks to his performance in an expanded role with the Nets, and I prophetically mused in his blurb that he could be moved to a real contender this offseason:
Everyone thought Cam Johnson would be traded this season. Probably including Cam Johnson. Instead, he has been forced to ply his trade with the Nets all year. And he’s done yeoman’s work all year. Pressed into being something like a No. 1 offensive option, Johnson's responded with the most efficient scoring season of his career. He's also assisted on — by far — a career-high share of teammate baskets while on the floor (17.6%), gotten to the line more than ever, and still managed to hit over 39% of his treys despite being more tightly guarded than ever. (The average closest defender on his threes has been a career-low 6.1 feet away from him, per Second Spectrum, and he’s been “heavily contested” a career-high 60.3% of the time.) It would have been cool if he got traded to a real contender, and maybe that’ll still happen this coming offseason. But he’s been plenty good and plenty fun to watch in Brooklyn.
I really think he can do most of what Porter Jr. did, while also bringing more to the table as an on-ball creator (see above) and defender.
So much of what made Porter such a good fit with Nikola Jokic was his facility in dribble hand-off actions, and Johnson is even more well-versed in those. Only Cade Cunningham received more hand-offs than Johnson last season, via GeniusIQ tracking, and among the 45 players who received 300 or more, Johnson's generated the 11th-most points per direct handoff. Porter checked in a few slots behind him, and that was despite the fact that one of them played with Jokic and the other did not.
Johnson works just as well shooting off screens as he does taking hand-offs, and he worked off the 10th-most off-ball screens in the NBA last season. Porter took the 14th-most, so again, he should slide very easily into his predecessor's role just by continuing to do the things he has already been doing.
There are very few players in the world that bring Porter's combination of size (6-10) and shooting (40.6% from three for his career), but Johnson at least comes close (6-8, 39.2% from deep). He doesn't have as high a release as Porter because nobody does, but but over the last five seasons Johnson has released the ball almost two full tenths of a second quicker than Porter, getting off his shot in an average of 0.67 seconds to Porter's 0.85 seconds. That can help make up for the fact that it might be slightly easier to contest at the release point.
Porter brings more in the rebounding department than Johnson does, and that's important, but Johnson brings more versatility on the offensive end and the ability to defend some types of players that Porter couldn't because he wasn't mobile enough thanks to his various back injuries. To me this is a pretty nice upgrade, and one that came for relatively little cost. Again, I loved this move.
