Signature Significance Revisited

About a year and a half ago, I wrote about a concept called Signature Significance. It comes from Bill James, and it’s about how, while a large sample will almost always be more valuable than a small sample and it is almost always foolish to read anything into any small sample, sometimes a small sample accomplishment is so rare that it does, indeed, signify something:

[In] certain relatively rare cases of extreme performance, significant separations in data can occur in surprisingly small samples, including one game. A perfect example would be the game in which Roger Clemens struck out 15 batters without walking anyone. That game, in and of itself, presents credible, or "significant" evidence that Clemens is a pitcher of some quality. Why? Because a poor pitcher never (almost literally never) has such a game…

Strikeout to walk ratio is an excellent indicator of a pitcher’s ability to win, and pitcher who strikes out 15 and walks none in a game is almost certain to have a good strikeout to walk ratio. We are in the habit of looking for direct significance; one game is never directly significant. No one game makes a man a proven pitcher. What small data samples can occasionally provide is indicative significance — the significance of the signature they bear.

In April of 2021, the Boston Celtics had just made a player by the name of Robert Williams III their starting center, and in his first four games in the role he had 43 points, 42 rebounds, 21 assists, five steals, and 12 blocks in just 111 minutes. In that fourth game, he collected 20 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, and I noted just how rare it was for a center of Williams’ age to do something like that — only 14 centers since the beginning of the three-point era had done it: Nikola Jokic, Brad Daugherty, Bam Adebayo, Demarcus Cousins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Greg Monroe, Shaquille O'Neal, Danny Schayes, Steve Stipanovich, Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Jusuf Nurkic, and Ralph Sampson.

I ended the post with this thought:

The “worst” player on that list is probably either Greg Monroe, Danny Schayes, or Steve Stipanovich, and those guys were all good starters for multiple years. The game moved away from Monroe types, but Schayes had an 18-year career and Stipanovich was on his way to a similar one before knee injuries ended his tenure at age 28.

On the strength of last night’s game alone, I think we can pretty confidently say that Robert Williams will be a good starting center, if given the opportunity to play that role. Whether he can be more than that, we will see, but again, this list of players he has joined provides quite the window into the possibilities. It’s absolutely littered with future stars. The Celtics should be thinking big here. I certainly am.

It didn’t take long for Williams to become much more than that, as last season he was an inner-circle Defensive Player of the Year candidate and a huge part of the Celtics making their run to the NBA Finals. We know he’s really good, and if he can stay healthy, he likely will be for a while.

Why do I bring all this up? Well, because I want to talk about Andrew Nembhard, who last night against the Warriors went off for 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 13 assists.

Nembhard was the 31st pick in this year’s draft, and he’s been part of the Pacers’ rotation for pretty much the entire season so far. A second-round pick becoming a rotation player right away is already pretty rare, but even before last night Nembhard had played quite well: In 22.8 minutes per game, he was averaging 7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 0.9 steals, while shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from three. Even if he regressed a little from there, the Pacers would have to be thrilled with finding a player like that in the second round.

After last night, though, we might have to start thinking about him differently. Here’s the list of players with at least 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 13 assists in a game during their rookie season:

• Michael Jordan (x2)
• Kevin Johnson
• Steve Francis
• Stephen Curry
• Trae Young
• Andrew Nembhard

Uh, that is fucking wild, folks. You don’t wind up on a list like that and not become a good NBA player. Accomplishing that feat so early in your career is highly likely to be an indicator of significant skill, the type that will keep you in the league for a while.

On the strength of last night’s game alone, I think we can pretty confidently say that Robert Williams Andrew Nembhard will be a good starting center player, if given the opportunity to play that a [sizable] role. Whether he can be more than that, we will see, but again, this list of players he has joined provides quite the window into the possibilities. It’s absolutely exclusively littered with future stars. The Celtics Pacers should be thinking big here. I certainly am.

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