Three Things NBA Preview: Los Angeles Lakers
As I detailed a few weeks back, I’m re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward to, interested in, or want to see. Or something like that.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows (with links for completed posts):
Oct. 7-11: Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
Oct. 14-18: Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS)
Just a reminder here that we are doing both L.A. teams today.. So without further ado, let’s get to the Los Angeles Lakers.
LeBron James, Year 22 (TWENTY-TWO!)
How good was LeBron in Year 21? Here's the list of seasons in NBA history where a player has averaged at least 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists per game while also shooting better than 40% from three:
2023-24 LeBron James
That’s it
If you want to drop the requirements to 25-7-7 and 40% from deep, it's LeBron last season, LeBron in 2012-13 (probably the best season of his career), and Larry Bird in 1986-87. The man played most of last season at 39 goddamn years old! What the fuck?!
Want something more advanced? How about a 29% usage rate, 37% assist rate, and 60% true-shooting mark? The list:
James Harden in 2017, 2018, and 2019
Nikola Jokic in 2021, 2022, and 2024
Trae Young in 2022
Luka Doncic in 2023 and 2024
LeBron five times, including last year
But again, LeBron did it at 39 years old. The oldest anybody else on the list has been when carrying those numbers? 29! That was Harden in 2019. Jokic was 28 last year, so if he does it again this season, then he will match Harden by being A FULL DECADE YOUNGER than 2024 LeBron when doing this.
He’s still so good that he has broken people’s minds when it comes to age curves. Like four or five years ago there was a whole breathless discourse about how 34-year-old Carmelo Anthony couldn’t find anyone to sign him. Yeah, duh. Melo’s subsequent few seasons after finding gigs in Portland and then with the Lakers were ~fine (on offense, at least) but older guys who are not truly positive impact players and yet still command playing time usually are not in demand. Those dudes are pretty much always out of the league by then because they’re just not that good anymore.
LeBron has just made a lot of people forget about that. How much longer can he keep this up? Honestly, I wouldn’t put it past him to do it into his mid-40s. We’ve never seen anything like this to begin with and his skill set and intelligence are such that he could probably just play quarterback-style point guard from the top of the key or the post as he gets less and less athletic (which, the dude is probably still like a top-10 athlete in the league); so why not? I don’t think enough people truly comprehend just how insane what he’s doing right now is. It will hopefully be appreciated much more in hindsight, 10 or 20 years from now. (Assuming he’s not still playing by then.)
J.J. Redick, Head Coach
I tried to stay out of the Redick discourse when he was first hired. These were the extent of my thoughts on the ole Twitter machine:
I don't see how Redick getting a HC job is any more objectionable than, say, Jason Kidd or Derek Fisher getting one immediately after retiring. (Which is to say, it sucks for longtime assistants trying to get their foot in the door but prob not worth becoming national discourse.)
If you want to make the argument that it won't work for one reason or another, that's fine. There are plenty of reasons. I just think the “this is bullshit that he can get a job like this” line of argument is, itself, kinda bullshit. We've seen it before.
Doc Rivers got his first HC job with zero experience coaching at any level, Mark Jackson went from broadcasting to coaching, Steve Kerr went from broadcasting to GMing to broadcasting to coaching, etc. Again, this happens quite often. We don't need to pretend it's outrageous.
I'd also just say that there is no proven “right” background for a head coach to have. Coaches with all different backgrounds/track records have succeeded and failed. Pelinka (bc he shapes the roster) will have more effect on JJ's success/failure than his lack of experience will.
Still, it’s going to be fascinating to watch this experiment in action. Coaching a LeBron Team is hard. Redick has a slightly unusual background for a coach. And this is still the Lakers. How this team plays on the floor, however, is obviously much more interesting to me than any of the potential off-court dramas.
I’m very interested to see what they do on offense specifically, and if it’s any different from what we’ve seen from basically every LeBron team over the past 15 years. Will we get LeBron orchestrating from the top of the key like always, or will we see more of him in the post or as a roll man? Will Anthony Davis actually take more threes? Will Redick acquiesce to Davis’ annual demand that he play next to a center? Who is more of a focal point in terms of ball-handling responsibility: D’Angelo Russell or Austin Reaves?
Defensively, can he do more than just count on Davis to erase the mistakes and paper over the liabilities of the other players on the court? Russell has always been a negative defender; Reaves got HUNTED at times last season; LeBron can only occasionally reach back into the 2010s and ratchet up his level of defensive activity; and they are surrounded by a bunch of young guys. (More on them in a second.) The 2024 Lakers barely managed to eke out a league-average defense with AD playing 76 games. What if he has to miss time? What if he’s 2-3% worse this year than last? How are they going to defend if he can’t be a pterodactyl all the time, every night?
The Youths, with opportunity
Compared with LeBron, everyone in this rotation (or potentially in the rotation) is obviously quite young. You’ve got AD, who is 31; Christian Wood is 29; D'Angelo Russell and Gabe Vincent are each 28; Reaves and Rui Hachimura are both 26 and will be 27 by next May. All of those guys, along with Jarred Vanderbilt (somehow still only 25) are on their second (or third, or fourth) contracts. Jaxson Hayes (24) is as well.
The real group of youngsters is Max Christie, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Dalton Knecht, Maxwell Lewis, and Bronny James. Will any of them crack the rotation? Christie certainly got paid like he will. Knecht brings a valuable skill set as a movement shooter. James didn’t get drafted to his dad’s team to not play — at least in the season opener. (Who knows what happens after that.) It would help if one of these guys was a center who could be Davis’ backup, but they’re all guards or wings.
But the Lakers do kinda need at least one of these guys to pop. Vincent and Vanderbilt need to stay healthy, but they’re valuable bench pieces if they do. Wood is a liability on defense. I’m not convinced Russell will be on the team post-deadline. There is opportunity for someone to step up and take on a pretty significant role.