Three Things NBA Preview: Boston Celtics
As I detailed last week, I’m re-appropriating the Three Things I Noticed on League Pass format to preview the upcoming season. Instead of three things I noticed, it’ll be something more along the lines of three things I’m looking forward, interested in, or want to see. Or something along those lines.
The schedule for those posts will be as follows:
Sept. 2-6: Atlantic Division (BOS, BKN, NYK, PHI, TOR)
Sept. 9-13: Central Division (CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIL)
Sept. 16-20: Southeast Division (ATL, CHA, MIA, ORL, WAS)
Sept. 23-27: Pacific Division (GSW, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC)
Sept. 30-Oct. 4: Northwest Division (DEN, MIN, OKC, POR, UTA)
Oct. 5-11: Southwest Division (DAL, HOU, MEM, NOP, SAS)
So without further ado, let’s get to the defending champs.
Jayson and Jaylen, freed from the burden
In my morning-after story when the Celtics won the Finals, I obviously had a lot to say about these two. Specifically, I wrote about how, as then-ESPN analyst and now-Lakers coach J.J. Redick said during the postgame celebrations that they were allowed to experience “growth through failure,” and how that luxury helped them reach this peak.
Two years ago, Tatum was not the playmaker that he was in this series, and this season. If he had poor shooting nights during that run to the 2022 Finals, he could not have had nearly the impact on the games that he did when that happened during this run. Tatum's career high in assists is 12. He nearly hit that number twice in this series, only falling short because last night was a blowout and so he checked out of the game with 11. He made high-level reads all series long, and (with the exception of some ever-frustrating sidestep threes) trusted his teammates at all the right times. From the second quarter through the end of the game last night, he struck perhaps the best shoot-pass-drive decision-making balance that I've ever seen from him. It's a testament to his growth.
Brown has just flat-out gotten better every year of his career. He was Boston’s best player during this series, and during this run. He kept up his spectacular offensive performances despite being tasked with guarding Luka Doncic all series long. He was a menace in the open court, his drives set the tone for what Boston’s offense needed to be, and he rarely forced things more than they needed to be forced. He got the largest contract in NBA history last offseason, which caused a whole lot of consternation despite the fact that it only happened that way because he just so happened to be the first guy eligible to sign such a deal who was even conceivably worth it. That deal will be surpassed soon enough and look like a bargain soon after. That he won Finals MVP was fitting, given that it was almost always him that outsiders wanted to see shipped out of the Celtics did break up the Jays. Good for him.
The burden of climbing the mountain again and again, only to continually come up short of fully scaling it, is gone now. They have been to the mountaintop.
There’s a danger when that happens of getting complacent, but these guys are squarely in their primes and, after Brown was left off the Olympic team and Tatum was an odd man out in the rotation, seem like they are still pissed off about their perceived places in the league’s pecking order. Without having to worry about things like “can we really win the Finals” and “are they gonna break us up if we don’t get it done this year,” I’m really excited to see what they look like — both individually and as a duo.
What happens if, for example, the tightness that has for a long time affected the Celtics’ crunch time offense dissipates? What happens if Tatum’s off-the-dribble jumper goes down at the rate it did in previous seasons rather than the rate it did toward the end of last year and in the playoffs? What happens if the level of two-way brilliance that Brown reached during the stretch run and sprint to the title is just his normal level of play from now on? What happens if, now that they know they can do it, they play like guys who know it’s not a question anymore?
Kristaps Porzingis, unicorn uncertainty
In case you’ve already forgotten, Porzingis suffered a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon during the Finals. He somehow played in the clincher anyway and made a decent impact, but he had surgery in late June and the Celtics announced a recovery timeline of five to six months. That puts him out until at least late November, and possibly/probably into the new year. (The latter seems more likely, given both KP’s extensive injury history and the Celtics’ 99.99999% chances of making the playoffs anyway.)
This team is obviously plenty good enough to get by without him until he returns. But they do need him for a run at going back to back. He supercharges everything they do on both sides of the ball. More players have since come into the league with this combination of skills over the last several years; but there’s a reason Porzingis was once dubbed a unicorn.
Being able to create space on one end and erase it at the other is an incredibly valuable combination, and he does it by sniping away from several feet beyond the three-point line and protecting the rim as well as almost anyone in the league. Throw in the remarkably efficient post game he’s developed over the years and he is the guy who takes Boston from “really freaking good” to “one of the best teams in recent memory, whether you think so or not.” How long he takes to get back, and what he looks like when he does, is one of the big swing events of the season.
Holiday and Horford, holding up
Al Horford turned 38 earlier this year. Jrue Holiday turned 34. Last year, they were obviously more than good enough to contribute at a high level to a championship team. But the age cliff comes fast, and it’s at least got to be in the back of your mind when considering what the Celtics will get out of these guys.
If Holiday goes from being one of the, say, five best perimeter defenders in the league to merely a top-20 guy, that matters a lot. And if Horford’s shooting drops off while playing more minutes, or if he’s like 5-10% less mobile, that also matters. It’s clearly not a guarantee that these drop-offs will happen, but I’ll definitely be closely monitoring any developments with them.