2024 NBA Draft: bSPARQ Athletic Similarity Scores for top prospects
Which players count Jalen Brunson, Brook Lopez, John Wall, Aaron Gordon, Klay Thompson, and Dwight Howard among their closest athletic comps?
Earlier this week, I brought back the bSPARQ athleticism ratings after many of the top prospects participated in this year’s NBA combine. I also put out a call in that post for help with a new athletic comparison engine, and very quickly got some from . Unfortunately, Substack doesn’t allow for embedding of Google Sheets, so I can’t grant wide access to the engine itself. Instead in the space below, I’m going to run through comparisons for some of the top prospects in this class.
We’ll start with projected No. 1 overall pick Alex Sarr, who has quite an eclectic mix of athletic comparisons. It runs the gamut from a traditional center in Marcin Gortat to a space big like Pascal Siakam, who now plays like more of a wing than he did when he participated in the combine back in 2016. Also included are Nic Claxton, Chris Bosh, and 2024 draft-mates Jesse Edwards and Kel’el Ware.
I’d like to note a couple things here:
These comparisons are strictly based on a player’s measurements and athletic testing at the NBA combine. They do not at all account for style of play, production, projected role, draft slot, or really anything other than the data is collected at the combine itself. That’s why you’ll find a diverse array of player archetypes in each list.
The comparisons account for a player’s height, weight, wingspan, standing reach, lane agility, 3/4-court sprint, shuttle run, bench press (or imputed bench press, as appropriate), standing vertical, and max vertical.
It is very important to look at the similarity scores themselves. For example, every player in Sarr’s top 20 comparables registers a similarity score of at least 80.66%, as you can see above. Meanwhile, Tristan da Silva’s single-closest comp checks in at 78.52%. So, factoring in the closeness of the comparison in addition to the identity of the player to whom they are similar is something to take into account.
Got all that? Great.
Now, for the rest of the athletic similarity scores — including Matas Buzelis, Reed Sheppard, Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Ron Holland, Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Ja’Kobe Walter, Devin Carter, Jared McCain, Tristan da Silva, Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, Carlton Carrington, Kel’el Ware, Zach Edey, Tyler Smith, Johnny Furphy, Kyshawn George, Adam Bona, and Bronny James — hit the jump below.1
Founding level subscribers, reply to this email and I will send you a link to the comparison generator so you can test it out. It includes every prospect who has participated in athletic testing at the combine going all the way back to 2000, so if you have ever wondered about things like, “Which NBA players were most similar athletically to Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje (or — more likely — Dwyane Wade, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gobert, Jalen Brunson, and more)”, you can now see for yourself.
In the meantime, if anybody out there knows of a workaround for embedding Google Sheets into Substack so that I can have the dynamic chart and allow more people to play around with the generator, please hit me up!
Enjoy.
G League Ignite Forward Matas Buzelis
Buzelis, as noted earlier in the week, tested as a slightly below-average athlete for a wing. He’s on the lighter side at only 197 pounds while standing 6’8.75”, and his wingspan is “only” 6’10”. He posted pretty good vertical (especially max vertical) and lane agility numbers, though, and he counts some intriguing athletes like Gerald Green and Brandon Clarke among his closest comps, though those two check in as being much less similar to Buzelis than guys like Ziaire Williams and fellow probable lottery pick Ron Holland. (Again, none of these guys have even remotely similar games. The comparisons are strictly based on the measurements and athletic testing results.)
Kentucky Guard Reed Sheppard
All 20 of Sheppard’s closest comparables are between 88% and 93%, and the list is basically who’s who of small-ish guards. Jordan Farmar, Kemba Walker, Shane Larkin, Earl Watson, Speedy Claxton… They’re all slightly different archetypes of the small but quick and athletic point guard.
UConn Center Donovan Clingan
Clingan has four comps over 90%, and three of them were long-term NBA centers. It’s unsurprising to find defensive anchors like Brook Lopez and Steven Adams near the top of the list, as well as guys like Zach Edey, Andrew Bogut, and even DeMarcus Cousins toward the bottom. There are only so many guys who are going to be similar to a dude that is 7'1.75", 282 pounds, with a 7'6.75" wingspan and a 9'7" standing reach.
UConn Guard Stephon Castle
I mentioned earlier this week that I was unsurprised to find that Castle had similar measurements and a similar bSPARQ rating to Josh Hart, and you can see that Hart shows up twice on Castle’s comparison list. (Hart attended the combine twice.) To give you an idea how diverse these comps can be, consider that Castle has an over 80% similarity with both Dahntay Jones and Doug McDermott, who could not possibly have been more different as players.
G League Ignite Forward Ron Holland
Holland’s closest comps look very similar to the ones we saw for Buzelis. Andre Jackson Jr., Gerald Green, V.J. Beachem, Tamar Slay, and Joe Wieskamp show up on both lists, and are all in Holland's top 8. Buzelis is there, too, along with quality role players like Aaron Wiggins, Cody Martin, Lonnie Walker, and Dyson Daniels.
Tennessee Guard Dalton Knecht
Dahntay Jones is actually Knecht’s closest comp, which is hilarious when you consider how Jones played compared with the way Knecht does. The same applies to Tony Allen being on this list. None of Knecht’s comps reach the 90% mark, though, whereas Clingan had four of those and Sheppard had TEN.
Colorado Forward Cody Williams
If you were expecting to see Cody’s brother, Thunder forward Jalen Williams on this list, sorry. There is a Thunder wing there in Aaron Wiggins, as well as a former Thunder wing in Jeremy Lamb. but none of Williams’ comps even reaches the 80% line, and two of the top 20 are below 70%. In other words, it’s a lot tougher to find similar athletes to Williams.
USC Guard Isaiah Collier
Small but strong point guards are all over Collier’s comparables list. Raymond Felton, Deron Williams, Jalen Brunson, Jay Williams, Jameer Nelson… That is very much A Type. Being that Collier clocked in at 204.6 pounds while mesasured 6'2.5" and then had a 30-inch standing vert, I suppose we shouldn't be surprised to see his list littered with that type of player.
Baylor Guard Ja’Kobe Walter
Here’s yet another wing in this class with Andre Jackson among his closest comps, and our second one with Jackson as his top comp. It’s always something that gets your radar up when you spot John Wall near the top of the list, and recent high-level athletes like Lonnie Walker and Zhaire Smith are in there, too.
Providence Guard Devin Carter
Carter is listed as a wing due to the way the automated positional designations work, but half his list here is made up of either point guards or combo guards — which makes sense, being that he is 6'2.25" and 193 pounds. (That group includes Terry Rozier and Zach LaVine, which is certainly intriguing.) His 6'8.75" wingspan is enormous, though, and his fastest sprint in combine history, class-best lane agility and 42-inch max vertical bring a bunch of wings into the mix as well.
Duke Guard Jared McCain
Jameer Nelson, Khalid El-Amin, Ed Cota, Aaron Craft, Jarrett Jack... this list is taking me back, man. The final two spots on McCain’s list belonging to Jrue Holiday and T.J. McConnell is certainly interesting as well, given what I know about his game.
Colorado Forward Tristan da Silva
As previously mentioned, da Silva does not have any comparables over 80%. And even though he’s categorized as a big after being listed as a power forward at the combine, bigs only account for five of his 20 closest comps. There are a bunch of guys who ended up being combo forward types, like T.J. Warren, Andre Iguodala, Cam Johnson, and Kyle Kuzma, but again, the similarity scores themselves are pretty low.
Duke Forward Kyle Filipowski
Filipowski ending up with a few “white shooting big man” types near the top of his list is pretty funny, if nothing else. I feel like “souped-up Mo Wagner” is probably the archetype for him? I haven’t done a full deep dive into his game just yet; it looks like he’s got more in terms of ball-handling and playmaking skill than the older Wagner ever did, but the college scoring and rebounding numbers are on par and the shooting is on the way to getting there and most people seem to think it will.
Baylor Center Yves Missi
Missi is an interesting case because he measured 6'10.75" with a 7'2" wingspan and 9'1.5" standing reach, but then weighed in at only 229.4 pounds... and then jumped 38.5 inches but posted a petty poor lane agility time. So, his comps are accordingly all over the map, ranging from combo forwards like Perry ones at the top to centers like Jarrett Allen and Dwight Howard near the bottom. Having both Ed Davis and Chris Wilcox on the list is a nice throwback to the old ACC days, though.
Pittsburgh Guard Carlton Carrington
This list is fun as hell! Immanuel Quickley! Russel Westbrook! Flip Murray! DeAnthony Melton! Josh Hart! Delonte West! Ben Gordon! (Note that the Bernard King at No. 17 is not that Bernard King.) Carrington is a very fun player and it maks sense that his comparable list includes a lot of fun players. They’re all in the 82% to 89% range, so they’re close, but not quite as close as some others.
Indiana Center Kel’el Ware
Here is another list that makes perfect sense, based on what I know about Ware. It’s filled with bouncy, mobile big men like Sarr, Claxton, Amar’e Stoudemire, Siakam, Howard, and Ekpe Udoh. It also has a couple of combo forwards thrown in for good measure, along with a more traditional center in Gortat.
Purdue Center Zach Edey
Edey’s closest comp is, well, Edey from last year. Then the list gets quite interesting, with the likes of Darko Milicic and Byron Mullens showing up near the top, but guys like DeMarcus Cousins and Steven Adams and Andre Drummond finding their way in there alongside the Enes Kanters and Meyers Leonards of the world. It’s pretty difficult to find dudes who are close to Edey’s size, so it’s not surprising to see his list look somewhat similar to Clingan’s, who also appears in Edey’s closest comps.
G League Ignite Forward Tyler Smith
It’s definitely eye-popping to see an athlete like Aaron Gordon show up at the top of Smith’s list, even if the similarity is only 88%. The similarity to Gordon is seemingly backed up by the presence of Amar’e later in the list, though, and the juxtaposition of seeing STAT down there next to Cody Zeller and Mason Plumlee is a funny one. (It’s easy to forget that Zeller tested really, really well at the combine. His bSPARQ was in the 97th percentile. Plumlee was only in the 76th. His brother Miles was in the 99th, though.)
Kansas Guard Johnny Furphy
I don’t know that much about Furphy as a player just yet, but this is definitely the single-weirdest group of comps yet. It’s worth noting that only Preston Shumpert checks in over 80%, but Kenrich Williams, Klay Thompson, Darius Morris, Shaun Livington, Adam Morrison, Austin Reaves, Delon Wright, Marko Jaric, and Omri Casspi? That is such a diverse group of body types. I guess maybe that’s just what can happen when you're 6'7.5", 188.8 pounds? Everyone close to the league average height and weight seems similar to you in one way or another?
Miami Guard Kyshawn George
This list has more guys that I don’t actually remember than anybody else’s. I’d say 10 of the 20 guys, I have absolutely no memory of them. The ones I do, aren’t particularly encouraging. As mentioned on Wednesday, George is not the best athlete but is highly skilled and has great vision. If I had to guess the archetype of player that would lead to him being most successful, I’d say it looks something like right-handed Joe Ingles.
UCLA Forward Adem Bona
Bona tested as a 99th percentile athlete for a big man, and his close comparable list is accordingly stacked with high-level athletes. Dwight, Amar’e, Scottie Barnes, and a whole lot more. It sounds like Bona is more of a late-second type of prospect, but somebody will probably take a chance on a guy who looks like a pretty freaky athlete.
USC Guard Bronny James
I mentioned Tony Allen on Wednesday as a player in Bronny’s size and bSPARQ rating bucket, and Allen shows up in the top 10 here. Other smaller wings known for defense like Randy Foye and Lu Dort do as well. That’s probably the type of player he’s going to have to emulate to have a spot in the league. The fact that he’s a lot smaller than even those guys works against him, but his court vision, IQ, and supposedly-pretty-good jumper should help.
Re: that list, those are the players for whom I have requisite data and that are, on average, being selected in the first round in a recent sampling of mock drafts, plus a couple notable names like Bona — the most athletic player in this year’s class — and James.