Mail bag! What's up with the Magic, WembyMania, and more
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Welcome to the first mail bag of the season. I'll take your questions.
From lots of people: What's up with the Magic, specifically on offense, and should we be worried or is that an over-reaction?
I want to tackle the second part of the question, first. I think it's a delicate balancing act, in terms of whether you should be worried and how much worrying is too much. Kevin Pelton put it pretty well on BlueSky yesterday.
The 20-game mark is about when this season's team performance is as predictive as preseason expectations, but I do think it's worth remembering that doesn't mean results are meaningless up until then. Each game tells us a little more, and while there's a lot of overreaction, you can underreact too.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton.bsky.social) 2025-10-28T19:05:51.998Z
I do think it's important to note that it's early, while at the same time recognizing that the early results are not encouraging, and that the history of this specific team makes not-encouraging early results more worrisome, because it's not like this is a new problem. But it's also not a problem that was entirely unforeseeable.
In fact, I foresaw the possibility of something like this in in my analysis of the Desmond Bane trade, even while saying that I liked the fit from Orlando's perspective. I got pretty deep in the weeds with the tactical stuff in that post and I think most of it holds up pretty well on re-read, but the section that's most relevant here is this one:
Where I get at least some concern is the fact that it still doesn't seem like the Magic have A Guy who can drive a top-10 offense. They have four guys who are each capable ball-handlers and probably average or better passers for their position, but nobody who is a truly elite threat to create for himself and others. Maybe Banchero or Wagner takes a leap with improved spacing or maybe Bane blossoms as more of a lead ball-handler with Suggs playing off the ball. But maybe they all settle in as B+ to A- creators and the Magic are still a team that struggles to consistently create advantages in the halfcourt. Either result seems entirely within the realm of possibility and neither seems all that much more likely than the other. And if the latter result comes to pass, then what is the ceiling of this group?
I don't know that having a bunch of B+ (or even below that, at least early on) creators and no elite offensive engine is necessarily the definitive driver of Orlando's to-date disappointing offense (24th in offensive rating through Monday's games), but I do think it's part of it.
I also think that the relative lack of shooting and playmaking means that opponents just don't feel all that threatened by this offense — to the point that they pick it up lower on the floor than that of all but one other team. The average possession has seen opponents meet the lead ball-handler just 39.6 feet away from the rim, according to GeniusIQ tracking. That's 29th in the NBA.
By comparison, teams like the Clippers, Lakers, Bucks, Knicks, Timberwolves, and Pistons are having their lead ball-handler picked up, on average, in the backcourt. They want to get into the ball-handler and not give him any space. With the Magic, they're just sitting back and packing the paint to close off driving lanes and make them play offense from outside, in, without the benefit of elite shooting to create space. And it's working.
At a certain point, the system and coaching also has to come under scrutiny, as many, many people mentioned in my mentions. Jamahl Mosley is a really good coach, and the job he does defensively is among the best in the league. But the offense has been an ongoing problem, and to start the year the Magic are again not taking or making any threes, and they again sometimes seem aimless in the halfcourt.
Can you tell what they want to accomplish on any given possession beyond, "get the ball to Paolo or Franz or Bane and let them go to work"? There has to be some more creativity here, and there especially needs to be more direct interaction between the three main guys, so that things can loosen up for each of them.
