With right around 20 games remaining in the season, the battle for seeding in each conference is heating up. I wanted to take a look at where things stand, and where they might go, by using the projections at both Basketball-Reference and Dunks and Threes (ESPN's BPI doesn't have full seeding projections unfortunately), as well as the current tiebreaker situations and remaining strengths of schedule for each team. We'll break down each of the situations by which seeds teams are battling for.
East 2-4
We've got three Eastern Conference contenders fighting for positioning behind the Pistons. Boston, New York, and Cleveland are separated by just 2.5 games.
Boston Celtics
- 41-21; 2nd in offense; 6th in defense
- Remaining SOS: 7th (0.531)
- Tiebreakers
- 1-2 vs Knicks; 1 remaining (April 9)
- 2-0 vs Cavaliers; 1 remaining (March 8)
Boston is a game and a half ahead of New York and two and a half games ahead of Cleveland. Both Basketball-Reference and Dunks and Threes give the Celtics a better than 50-50 chance of holding onto the No. 2 seed. With Jayson Tatum seemingly likely to return sometime soon, and with the Celtics perfectly playing Joe Mazzulla Ball even without him all year, it would be pretty surprising if they dropped down to the No. 3 or 4. However, they do have a game remaining against each of the other contenders, both of which have significantly easier schedules down the stretch of the season. The Celtics also have yet to play the Thunder this year and still have games left against both the Spurs and Timberwolves.
New York Knicks
- 40-23; 3rd in offense; 8th in defense
- Remaining SOS: 27th (0.460)
- Tiebreakers
- 2-1 vs Celtics; 1 remaining (April 9)
- 2-1 vs Cavaliers; None remaining
The Knicks sit a game and a half back of the Celtics and a game ahead of the Cavaliers, owning the tiebreaker against both teams. They have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league, with chances to fatten up against the Nets, Wizards, Jazz, and Grizzlies in particular. They do still have to play the Thunder, Rockets, and Nuggets once each. They're maddeningly inconsistent but they've actually been quite good against the best teams in the league with the exception of the Pistons, who have kicked their asses three times in three chances. The Knicks are healthier than the Cavs at the moment, so I like their chances to hang onto the No. 3 seed, and if the schedule works in their favor, I suppose they have a chance to catch Boston. Winning that April 9 game would obviously help a whole lot in those efforts.
Cleveland Cavaliers
- 39-24; 6th in offense; 13th in defense
- Remaining SOS: 28th (0.445)
- Tiebreakers
- 0-2 vs Celtics; 1 remaining (March 8)
- 1-2 vs Knicks; None remaining
The Cavs' season-long numbers don't look as strong as their recent play. They've been much better of late, going 17-5 since mid-January with the league's second-best offense and ninth-best defense during that span. (Amazingly, the Knicks have the best defense in the NBA by nearly a full point per 100 possessions during that time.) James Harden has fit like a glove, unsurprisingly, but Donovan Mitchell is nursing a groin injury, Jarrett Allen left a recent game due to an injury of his own, and Harden is playing through a fracture in his thumb. The Cavs are dangerous in theory but as has been said repeatedly by just about everyone, I'm going to have to actually see it in the playoffs before I believe in it. Their strength of schedule down the stretch, though, should help in their efforts to climb the standings, assuming they can get healthy at some point.