Hit the jump for the post-All-Star edition of Three Things, starring one thing I will be watching for each team in the NBA after the break.
Atlanta Hawks
Sigh. I guess I'm watching Jonathan Kuminga, whenever he makes his debut. He's going to have more opportunity, more runway to do what he wants to do offensively in Atlanta, and it'll be interesting on some level to see how that goes. I'm at this point somewhat skeptical that it'll be a success, but crazier things have obviously happened before.
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum's timeline. I've been on the record basically since the injury happened that Tatum should probably just take the entire year off to fully heal, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. When he returns, and what he looks like when he does, is obviously one of the biggest swing factors in the Eastern Conference.
Brooklyn Nets
Mostly the rookies. Can Egor Demin make a shot inside the arc? Can Drake Powell make one outside it? Will Danny Wolf keep up the little run he went on pre-All-Star? Can Nolan Traore do the same? Can Ben Saraf stay on the court while doing not much except for making an interesting pass once in a while?
Charlotte Hornets
How real is this recent run? The Hornets have won 11 of their most recent 13 games, with the only losses during that stretch coming against the also-hot Cavaliers and then the Pistons. And those losses were by a combined 13 points. They kicked a lot of ass in the interim, too. They obviously won't win that consistently the rest of the way, but I want to see how much they can keep up.
Chicago Bulls
For once, it's not the play-in standings — and that's a nice change of pace. I want to see how the second-draft guys they acquired do the rest of the way. Rob Dillingham and Jaden Ivey are relatively recent top-10 picks who just didn't work out with their original teams for different reasons. Can they tap back into what made them lottery picks in the first place?
Cleveland Cavaliers
Honestly, not much about how things go for the Cavaliers after the All-Star break matters until the playoffs. I think we know that things will work out extremely well on the court during the regular season with James Harden joining the fold. He already fits well with Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, and he'll make it work with Evan Mobley. But both this team and the player it acquired have unenviable histories in the postseason, and there's no way to buck those until April and May roll around.
Dallas Mavericks
Can Cooper Flagg hold off Kon Knueppel in the Rookie of the Year race? Flagg is on pace to become one of just eight rookies in the history of the league to average at least 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The others on that list are Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Sidney Wicks, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Luka Doncic. It's incredible that he's even being challenged in the race, but that's how good Knueppel has also been. Flagg will have to maintain or even improve on what he's done to make sure he captures the trophy.
Denver Nuggets
When will Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson get back on the floor? We know the ceiling for the Nuggets, but they need those guys out there in order to reach it.
Detroit Pistons
Can they actually hold off the Thunder for the best record in the league and secure home court throughout the playoffs? And more consequentially when it comes to those playoffs, do they have enough shooting on this roster to make things work? (They're 27th in three-point rate and 21st in three-point percentage.) They traded for Kevin Huerter at the deadline in the hopes of adding another sniper but he's been trending downward in that department for the last few years. They're so good defensively that it all comes out in the wash during the regular season but playoff defenses are less forgiving.
Golden State Warriors
I just want to see Steph keep doing his thing.
Houston Rockets
Can the offense rebound? Houston is 25th in offensive rating since January 1. Without Steven Adams absolutely pounding teams on the glass, a huge piece of the team's offensive identity is missing. Can the Rockets figure out another way to score consistently? Unless they can, they're not going to compete with the other teams at the top of the conference.
Indiana Pacers
What does it look like if and when Ivica Zubac returns? Obviously, it won't look anything like it will next year when Tyrese Haliburton is back, but there are things we'll be able to learn about how Zubac and Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard fit together that will be meaningful in the long run.
L.A. Clippers
The Kawhi Leonard show. Since December 1, Kawhi is at 28.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.1 steals per game with a 49-37-90 shooting line. He's not quite Peak Kawhi defensively but he's not remotely a shadow of himself. He's way closer to the peak than he has any right to be, given the time that has elapsed and the toll his body has suffered in the interim. As always, it feels like there's a ticking clock on this. Can he stop the alarm from ringing before the season ends?
Los Angeles Lakers
Will their insane record in clutch games hold up over the rest of the season? The Lakers have out-performed their point differential by a league-high six wins so far, almost entirely because they're a league-best 15-3 in games that are within five points in the last five minutes. (Their 18 clutch games are also the fewest in the league, interestingly enough.) That's unsustainable over the long term, but they don't need it to sustain over the long term anymore. There is only short term left.
Memphis Grizzlies
How high can they climb on the lottery leaderboard? They have the eighth-worst record in the league at the moment. They're 1.5 games ahead of the Mavericks and 3.5 ahead of the Jazz. Is that gap even closable?
Miami Heat
Kasparas Jakucionis. He started getting regular minutes in the last month or so before the break and he's been pretty good! In 20.9 minutes a night, he averaged 7.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while shooting 45.0% from the field and 45.5% from three, despite having a six-game starting stint mixed in there where he didn't really play all that well. He's an adventurous passer and he's shown some closeout-beating ability. He looks like a nice find.
Milwaukee Bucks
Will Cam Thomas challenge the record for shots per minute for as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is out? He's taken 38 shots in 58 minutes with the Bucks so far, an average of 23.6 per 36 minutes. Jaylen Brown leads the league at 23.7 per 36 so far this year. I think Thomas can climb higher.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The fit with Ayo Dosunmu. He's come off the bench in his first three games with Minnesota, and I'd expect that to continue. He can play with either, both, or neither of Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo in the backcourt and make things work for the Wolves, depending on how Chris Finch wants to roll. Having another option who can create off the bounce is something Minnesota desperately needed, and whether Dosunmu can be that guy consistently is going to play a big role in determining Minnesota's ceiling.
New Orleans Pelicans
I just really like watching Trey Murphy play ball. So I'll be watching that.
New York Knicks
Whether Karl-Anthony Towns can get his offense back on track. The best version of the Knicks clearly involves Towns reaching a higher level than he's reached this year, which has been arguably the worst offensive season of his career. I don't know what has been going on to make him miss open threes and so many shots inside, but the Knicks can't get where they want to go if he doesn't rediscover what's made him such a tough cover since entering the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Everyone's health, but especially that of Jalen Williams. J-Dub did not look like himself in the stint he played after returning from wrist surgery and before injuring his hamstring. For the Thunder to be the best version of themselves, they need Williams operating at peak capacity. That hasn't been the case at any point this year. Getting him healthy is the most important thing, but getting him right is a close second.
Orlando Magic
Is there anything this team can do in the second half of the season that would ensure Jamahl Mosley is back next year? It seems like we may have hit the end of the road, given the way this season has gone.
Philadelphia 76ers
For the 100th straight year, it's mostly Joel Embiid's health. (The Sixers supposedly aren't too concerned over this latest bout of knee soreness, but we'll see what happens.) But also whether they can stay out of the play-in, whether Tyrese Maxey can continue shouldering this minutes and usage load, whether VJ Edgecombe can hit a second stride, and what happens if and when Paul George returns from his suspension.
Phoenix Suns
Can they catch any of the Wolves, Lakers, or Rockets to jump out of the play-in? They're within two games of Houston and only one back of both L.A. and Minnesota heading into the break. The Suns have the ninth-toughest remaining strength of schedule, but the Lakers have the eighth-toughest and the Wolves have the third-toughest. That could matter down the stretch.
Portland Trail Blazers
What are we gonna get from Scoot Henderson the rest of the way? He played in four of the final five games before the All-Star break, but that was his first action of the season. We're deep into Scoot's third year in the NBA and we still don't really know what he is yet. We have to get a lot more information, and he has to stay on the court for that to happen.
Sacramento Kings
Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell are fun to watch, I suppose. If I find myself drawn to anything else in a Kings game, it'll probably just be the overall level of sadness on display. Remember how fun this team was just like three years ago?
San Antonio Spurs
I can't keep my eyes off Stephon Castle. He's averaging 16.5-5-7 and he consistently gets wherever he wants on the floor despite not being able to shoot a lick. He recently had just the 23rd 40-12-12 game in NBA history, becoming only the 11th player to put up those numbers in a single game. And he's quite a bit better on defense than he is on offense. You can't go by him, and when you do, he recovers faster than almost anybody anyway. He's an absolute delight.
Toronto Raptors
Whether they can stay out of the play-in and/or catch up to the group of teams ahead of them. They're three games up on Orland and 3.5 up on Miami, and two games back of Cleveland, three back of New York, and 3.5 back of Boston. Is it more likely that they drop down, move up, or stay where they are? (It's probably the latter, if we're being honest.)
Utah Jazz
Whether the $500K fine and shaming deters them even the slightest.
Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, who are just legitimately good players that are going to help the Wizards whenever they start trying to be good themselves — which I would assume is next year. Sarr is one of only eight players with a 25% usage rate, 20% defensive rebound rate, and 15% assist rate. He's on the right track. George, meanwhile, is one of 15 players topping 20-15-20 in the same stats. And he's a good defender when locked in. He's well on his way, too.
