What Are You Up To This Summer? Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Nets, Raptors
Let's talk about the Atlantic Division
Over the next few days, I’m going to go division-by-division through the league and lay out what decisions need to be made and what’s at stake for each NBA team this offseason. We’ll start today with the Atlantic Division, then move to the Central, Southeast, Pacific, Northwest, and Southwest. Some of these will come out before the draft and some of them after it. That’s just the annoying way the schedule works out this year, with the draft and free agency starting within a few days of each other. Oh well, them’s the breaks.
Without further ado…
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics 🏆
Draft picks: 30, 54
Key Potential FA: Sam Hauser (TO), Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman
Big Decisions: Jayson Tatum extension, Derrick White extension, Hauser TO
Honestly, this offseason should be pretty easy for the Celtics. Hand Tatum his max extension at 6:01 on June 30. Do the same with White. Decide whether to bring Hauser back for one more year and risk losing him next offseason for nothing, or allow him to hit restricted free agency this year. (I’d imagine they do the former in order to keep costs down given the massive luxury tax bills they will be looking at in the future.) If you can upgrade the bench unit on the margins, whether with those two picks or part of one of the mid-level exceptions, get it done. Otherwise, this team is a readymade title favorite again next season.
New York Knicks
Draft picks: 24, 25, 38
Key Potential FA: OG Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein, Bojan Bogdanovic (Partial GTD), Precious Achiuwa, Alec Burks
Big Decisions: Anunoby UFA, Hartenstein UFA, Jalen Brunson extension, Julius Randle extension, Bojan Bogdanovic partial guarantee, Star trade discussions
The Knicks cannot afford to lose Anunoby; and if recent reports are any indication, he intends on making them pay full sticker price to retain his services. They had to know he would when they made the trade for him in December, given that he pretty much has them over a barrel. They should just do it and worry about the cost later.
It actually sounds like Hartenstein is going to return on what would be a discount of a contract, no matter for how long he signs the Early Bird rights deal. That’s great news for New York, which can then explore trades with Mitchell Robinson and/or Bogdanovic (if the partial guarantee is picked up or the date is pushed back) to lower its costs. Hartenstein’s ability to make plays out of the short roll is a much better fit with Brunson than is Robinson’s lob threat, because Brunson doesn’t really throw lobs because he’s not tall enough to see those passing lanes. Hartenstein also led the damn league in Defensive EPM last season, so it’s not like he’s a slouch on that end.
If Brunson is willing to extend at a massive discount so that he can lock in the money without taking the chance that he either regresses or gets injured next season, the Knicks should thank their lucky stars. A Randle extension is a bit trickier. He’s coming off shoulder surgery, and given his extremely physical style, it might be wiser to wait and see whether you want to pay him — especially because after being so durable in his first few years with the Knicks, this is now the second consecutive summer that he’s required surgery. But a version of Randle who is not 100% happy with his situation has also been … less than ideal for the Knicks, and if he’s not thrilled about not being extended right away, that could cause some problems next season. Especially if Brunson gets his deal and Anunoby gets a contract larger than Randle’s. So, it might be wise to poke around on Randle trades if the Knicks don’t plan on extending him. That can either be instead of or in addition to Robinson and/or Bogdanovic talks.
If a star somehow shakes free over the next week or so, the Knicks will presumably be pushing to the front of the line to acquire him. Who that star might be, and whether he’s an ideal fit, is another question. Count me out for them as a Karl-Anthony Towns destination. The contract nukes the flexibility this front office has prized since taking over in 2020, and it’s not clear he makes them a better team than does Randle. Devin Booker would probably be ideal, but if Paul George decides he wants to force his way to New York rather than re-sign in L.A. or go to Philly, that would also be nice. Making the money work while staying below the apron(s) would be tricky, but it’s doable in theory. If George were four years younger and/or not quite as injury prone, he would be literally the most perfect fit imaginable for the Knicks; but he also probably wouldn’t be available to them in a way he might be right now. If an agreeable deal is on the table, they should make it. Otherwise, running it back and trying to make the Big Star Trade later in the offseason or at the deadline is probably the best course of action. (Doing it before next summer is preferable for New York, because that’s when Brunson will start making a lot more money and it will be harder for the Knicks to fit another big deal on their books.)
Oh, and if none of the trade stuff happens, they need to make at least one or two of those three draft picks. They can’t punt on another class. Especially with costs about to rise for so many of their core pieces.
Philadelphia 76ers
Draft picks: 16, 41
Key Potential FA: Everyone except Joel Embiid
Big Decisions: Cap space, Tyrese Maxey RFA
Perhaps the single-most interesting team this offseason, pretty much everything is up in the air for the Sixers. They will almost surely agree with Maxey on a maximum extension at the start of free agency but wait until the last moment for him to sign it so they can use his lower cap hold to afford themselves the most room under the cap as possible.
Whether they will actually be able to land the third star player Daryl Morey seeks is another story. Reports that the Sixers aren’t actually that interested in George seem like more of a preemptive “you can’t break up with me, I broke up with you” type of thing, but then again, there was a subsequent report that the Sixers are still very much in on PG, so who knows. The other free agents out there aren’t necessarily the ideal type of impact players the Sixers are targeting, but because the current roster essentially only includes Embiid and Maxey, they can sign pretty much any archetype of player and make them fit.
Three-and-D wings are obviously the most ideal targets if Philly doesn’t land a star, but even the average or slightly above-average version of that player is going to be expensive. And given how Philly set itself up for this offseason, it’d probably be disappointing if it just comes away with (for example) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Klay Thompson.
Because Philly is so far under the cap, though, it can also just make a trade and take a player or players back into its cap space. Getting a team to agree to such a deal might be difficult, though, because the Sixers don’t really have any players they can send back other than Paul Reed, if they guarantee his contract. The best path would probably be figuring out a sign-and-trade with Tobias Harris, but both he and the acquiring team would have to agree to that structure.
Brooklyn Nets
Draft picks: None
Key Potential FA: Nicolas Claxton, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Smith Jr.
Big Decisions: Claxton UFA, Ben Simmons contract, Mikal Bridges future
The first big domino here is Claxton, and the fact that his contract hasn’t gotten done during this early negotiating window indicates to me that the two sides might be pretty far apart in their respective valuations. A very good but non-star center is perhaps the trickiest archetype of player to value right now, so that wouldn’t be altogether surprising. Whether he’d have suitors on the open market is up for debate, and would likely depend on what he’s looking for. The mid-level exception? Sure, probably. More than that? Maybe. If Hartenstein re-signs in New York and he’s the top guy out there, it could happen.
Simmons is headed into the final year of his deal as a $40.3 million expiring contract. That could be a useful trade chip, in theory, if anyone expected him to actually step on a basketball court at some point. As it is, the Nets might have to attach assets to him in order to get rid of it. And that's less than ideal. It might just be better to let him expire. But then you run into an awkward situation with Bridges, who can either net you a lot in a trade or attract some unidentified star player to Brooklyn but may not be interested in the latter option if the team stinks again this year.
The Nets have a few extra firsts from Phoenix and Dallas but are also out almost all of their own firsts thanks to the original recipe James Harden trade, so it's tough to imagine them being at the front of the line for any star trade anyway. Their best path might be dealing Bridges for a haul and just totally rebuilding. Again. Which is a tough scene, but that's generally what happens when your superteam blows up in your face.
Toronto Raptors
Draft picks: 19, 31
Key Potential FA: Immanuel Quickley (RFA), Bruce Brown (TO), Gary Trent Jr., Jordan Nwora
Big Decisions: Quickley RFA, Brown TO, Building around Quickley-Scottie Barnes-R.J. Barrett core
Quickley is going to get paid, whether by the Raptors directly, by some other team on an offer sheet that the Raptors match, or by getting blown out of the water with a massive offer sheet that Toronto declines to match. The only question is how high the average annual salary will go. (My bet is around $30 million, from the Raptors.) He averaged 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists a night after being traded from New York to Toronto1, maintaining his sky-high three-point conversion rate (39.5%) on 7.1 attempts per game. He struggled a bit inside the arc, especially during the beginning of his tenure, but then improved — just as he did in New York. He and Barnes fit quite well together, and he obviously has played quite well alongside Barrett for a while now.
Toronto’s lottery pick conveyed to San Antonio thanks to the Jakob Poeltl trade, which doesn’t look great. The Raptors do still have two picks in the middle of the draft, but it would have been nice to be able to add a high-level mid-lottery type of piece to Barnes-Quickley-Barrett and try to take things to another level.
Instead, the path to doing that might run through Brown. There are four options here: Pick up the option and bring him back, with an eye toward potentially dealing him at the deadline; Pick up the option with a trade already in place; Decline the option and bring him back on a longer term deal at a lower price; Decline the option and let him walk. The last one should be a non-starter. We saw last season what using a high-level role player like Brown as the salary ballast in a trade can get you (Pascal Siakam). Barring an agreeable long-term contract, it would be far more preferable for Toronto to pick up the option and explore what he can net in a deal. Contending teams would presumably be all over trying to get him.
For the sake of comparison, consider that the only players to average 18.5/4.5/6.5 for the full season last year were Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, and LeBron James.